The Union can clinch the Supporters’ Shield with a win at home Saturday

The Union’s extraordinary season took another wild swing Tuesday, and they didn’t even take the field for this one.

The Chicago Fire’s 5-3 win at Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami — and the score barely told the story — cleared the decks for the Union to win a trophy this weekend.

If they beat New York City FC on Saturday (7:30 p.m., Apple TV), they will clinch first place in the Eastern Conference and leaguewide, and will be able to lift the Supporters’ Shield trophy for the latter honor.

That will also give the Union home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, which would force the league’s biggest stars to all come to Chester: Messi and Luis Suárez’s Miami, Thomas Müller’s Vancouver Whitecaps, and Son Heung-Min’s Los Angeles FC.

The only road game the Union would have to play in the entire postseason would be in the first round, which is a best-of-three series instead of the one-game rounds the rest of the way.

The playoffs start on Oct. 22 and 23 with the one-game wild card round for the No. 8 and 9 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences. The first full round is spread out from Oct. 24 to Nov. 9.

» READ MORE: The Union will have to play without Quinn Sullivan, who suffered a torn ACL on Saturday

Then comes the November FIFA window, when coincidentally the U.S. men’s national team will play at Subaru Park on Nov. 16. After that, the conference semifinals are Nov. 22 and 23, the conference finals are Nov. 29 and 30 (Thanksgiving weekend), culminating in the MLS Cup final on Dec. 6, a Saturday.

Coincidentally, the title game is the day after the World Cup draw, Dec. 5, a few hours down the road in Washington.

If the Union finish the job Saturday, it would be the first time in team history that they win a major trophy in front of a full house at Subaru Park. When they won the Shield in 2020, it was during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the crowd was limited to 2,775.

That moment also included a shipping mishap that kept the Shield from being delivered to Chester in time for the game. Alejandro Bedoya lifted a hastily made replica of the trophy instead.

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Two years later, the Union won the Eastern Conference playoff title in front of a full house by beating NYCFC in the conference final. But that is not considered one of MLS’s major trophies — as shown by Concacaf Champions Cup berths going to the conference regular-season winners instead.

“I can’t imagine how that will be,” said veteran centerback Jakob Glesnes, one of five players still here from 2020. “But it’s a hard job before then. We are meeting a good team in New York City, and we have to go all in to get something out of that.”

It would also be young phenom Cavan Sullivan’s first major trophy, earned just after he turned 16 on Sunday. He won a few prestigious youth tournaments with Union squads, but this is the level he and so many people have waited for — whether in his hometown, MLS’s marketing department, or his future home at England’s Manchester City.

“I analyze a lot before games,” he said, “and certainly lifting my first trophy with the first team is definitely in those dreams.”

» READ MORE: The Union delivered a statement win in D.C., but they aren’t getting too high about it

If the Union don’t win Saturday, whether it’s with a tie or loss, the Shield race would come down to the season’s final day on Oct. 18. The Union play at Charlotte FC, where they have never won.

And what about that Chicago-Miami score? The Fire led 2-0 and 3-1 in the first half, then Suárez scored twice for Miami in the second to level at 3-3. But Chicago struck in the 80th and 83rd minutes, to seal their first playoff berth in eight years. The result also ended the New York Red Bulls’ MLS record of 15 straight years reaching the postseason.

That’s how the karma has gone for the Union lately, save for Quinn Sullivan’s season-ending ACL injury. Now the path is wide-open for them to finish the job.

Here’s the ranking of the teams alive for the trophy. A reminder that the first tiebreaker is total wins, followed by goal difference. A win earns three standings points, and a tie earns one.

1. Union: 63 points, 19-6-7

2. FC Cincinnati: 59 points, 18-5-9

If the Union win Saturday, they’d reach 66 points, and Cincinnati wouldn’t be able to catch them.

3. San Diego FC: 57 points, 17-6-9

If the Union win or tie Saturday, San Diego can’t catch them on points.

4. Vancouver Whitecaps: 57 points, 16-9-6

If the Union win Saturday, Vancouver can still catch them on points because of their game in hand. But the Union would hold the tiebreaker, because the Whitecaps wouldn’t be able to reach 20 wins.

5. Inter Miami: 56 points, 16-8-7

Miami can’t get to 66 points. Their maximum is 65.

6. Los Angeles FC: 53 points, 15-8-7

Though they still have four games left to play, they can only max out at 65 points.

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