Projecting the USMNT’s World Cup roster after its last game of the year: Several locals in; surprises on the bubble

TAMPA, Fla. — From the time Mauricio Pochettino took over the U.S. men’s soccer team last year, each moment has had two meanings.

Along with trying to win games, every pass, shot, tackle, save, or failure has been about trying to make the World Cup team. That mentality is burned deep into American soccer’s psyche, as it has been for many decades, and it’s even deeper when the tournament is on home soil.

The competition is made more difficult by how few opportunities there are to compete. Tuesday’s U.S.-Uruguay game was the 22^nd match of Mauricio Pochettino’s tenure, with two more in March before the World Cup roster is named in late May.

» READ MORE: Mauricio Pochettino reflects on the USMNT’s progress during his tenure

That is the same number of games (24) the Eagles played in their entire 2024 campaign, from the preseason through the Super Bowl — to say nothing of how many games there are in other sports’ calendars.

On top of that, in none of those 22 games has Pochettino had every member of his A squad healthy. Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, Sergiño Dest, and others have missed significant time along the way.

Then combine those absences with the Nations League flop in March, which forced Pochettino to blow up his plans and bring in a bunch of less-talented challengers to try to outhustle the stars. The result is the roller-coaster path the U.S. team has been on this year, reaching a smooth track only in the last two months.

This has made projecting a World Cup roster quite difficult. It’s a game fans love to play, and the media often enjoys it too. But the absences, the results, and the quick cadence of FIFA windows this fall made it more sensible to wait.

Now, though, the Americans have wrapped up their work for the year. The 24 players on this month’s squad headed back to the club world on Wednesday morning, and that side of the game will reign until late March.

» READ MORE: The USMNT’s players appreciate the team’s tough schedule leading up to the World Cup

So this moment feels right to look at the bigger picture. Here’s my view of the race to make the plane to Atlanta, where the 26-player World Cup team will gather at U.S. Soccer’s new national training center before its pretournament friendlies.

The projection is broken down by the six main positions in Pochettino’s tactics: goalkeeper, outside back, centerback, central midfielder, attacking midfielder, and striker. Each position then has players who look like they’re in, those on the bubble (in alphabetical order), and a few words of analysis.

In: Matt Freese (New York City FC), Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew)

Bubble: Roman Celentano (FC Cincinnati), Jonathan Klinsmann (Cesena, Italy), Zack Steffen (Colorado Rapids), Matt Turner (New England Revolution)

» READ MORE: Wayne’s Matt Freese remains atop the USMNT goalkeeper depth chart

Analysis: Unless something goes off the rails for Freese, the Wayne native is in line to become the most surprising U.S. starting goalkeeper at a World Cup for generations. He was given a chance in June and has not let it go, playing 13 of the Americans’ 14 games since the start of the summer.

Schulte, at age 24, is a fine starter in Columbus, a capable backup with the U.S., and a leading name for the 2030 cycle.

Turner’s fall is as surprising as Freese’s rise. The locked-in starter from the 2021 Gold Cup through this past March is now not just out of games, but out of rosters. Even a move back to New England to get the playing time he lacked in Europe hasn’t gotten him back in Pochettino’s good graces.

Celentano and Klinsmann, son of former U.S. manager Jürgen Klinsmann, have been in a few U.S. camps. Steffen, of Downingtown, unfortunately is on the outside looking in right now, despite his talent. He’ll have to hope for a strong start next year in Colorado that vaults him over the field.

In: Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew), Sergiño Dest (PSV Eindhoven, Netherlands), Alex Freeman (Orlando City), Antonee Robinson (Fulham, England), Tim Weah (Marseille, France)

Bubble: Kristoffer Lund (FC Köln, Germany), John Tolkin (Holstein Kiel, Germany)

Analysis: With one exception, this position is easy to line up. All five of the “in” names are locks to make the squad unless Robinson can’t recover from a long-term knee issue. From here, the view is if he’s healthy on June 1, that’s all that matters.

Dest and Weah are the other big names, each capable of thriving in the right wingback role and playing the left side if necessary.

Earlier this year, a reader complained to me on social media that the underwhelming Gold Cup squad might only produce the last players picked for a World Cup squad. I responded that if that was to happen, that squad would be a smashing success, no matter its results.

Arfsten and Freeman are the proof of that, having shot to well-earned prominence this year. Though they wouldn’t start if the three others are healthy, they are more than capable backups.

Lund and Tolkin are on the bubble in case Robinson ends up out. Tolkin played well against Uruguay on Wednesday in his first U.S. cap since the Gold Cup; Lund hasn’t been called in since October of last year.

» READ MORE: The USMNT’s new tactics seem made for Sergiño Dest, but how much will he play in them?

In: Mark McKenzie (Toulouse, France), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace, England)

Bubble: Noahkai Banks (Augsburg, Germany), Tristan Blackmon (Vancouver Whitecaps), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic, Scotland), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach, Germany), Auston Trusty (Celtic, Scotland), Walker Zimmerman (free agent, last with Nashville SC)

Analysis: Ream and Richards aren’t just locks, they’re expected starters. The third starting spot is up for grabs, and there’s a lot of competition.

McKenzie isn’t just projected as in here out of hometown loyalty to the Union alumnus from Bear, Del. His play for the national team and Toulouse puts him above a field in which no one else has truly stepped up.

From here, the bet is Pochettino will take two more, and the race is wide-open.

» READ MORE: Six years since leaving the Union, Auston Trusty comes full circle with the USMNT

Blackmon has played some for Pochettino but isn’t at the needed level. Carter-Vickers didn’t play for the U.S. in October, a big warning sign, then suffered an Achilles injury at Celtic. Robinson is a U.S. regular but hasn’t quite done well enough to ensure a plane ticket.

Scally can play multiple positions and is listed here because right centerback is where he projects under Pochettino. After being out of the picture for a while, he played there against Paraguay, got torched on a goal, then didn’t play vs. Uruguay.

Trusty played the full game vs. Uruguay and did well at both ends of the field. Zimmerman is last in line, but if he lands at a big club in MLS free agency and starts the year strong, he could be an emergency option.

Banks is a big wild card. The 18-year-old Hawaii native stands 6-foot-4, is starting to earn regular playing time at Augsburg, and has held his own in the Bundesliga’s cauldron. Pochettino called him up in September, but hasn’t since. If Banks keeps playing, he might just make it.

In: Tyler Adams (Bournemouth, England)

Bubble: Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps), Johnny Cardoso (Atlético Madrid), Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough, England), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders), James Sands (St. Pauli, Germany), Tanner Tessmann (Lyon, France)

Analysis: Adams is a lock — a star, a veteran, and the team’s most vocal leader. From there, the question will be how deep Pochettino goes at the position.

Tessmann, Roldan, and Morris lead the way, with Tessmann the closest to a lock. That takes the total to four, and the guess here is one more will make it.

Berhalter made quite a statement in Tuesday’s win over Uruguay, with a goal and an assist off a corner kick. That puts him ahead for now of Cardoso, who has tons of talent and is at a huge club but has a history of playing poorly for the U.S. He’s also coming off an injury. If he’s healthy by March, he could get one shot at a ticket in that month’s friendlies.

Sands helps his case with versatility, as he also can play centerback. He got a look in October and wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t called back this month even though there was room for him.

» READ MORE: Cristian Roldan is back with the USMNT, and it feels like he never left

In: Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United, England), Weston McKennie (Juventus, Italy), Christian Pulisic (AC Milan, Italy), Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen, Germany), Alejandro Zendejas (Club América, Mexico)

Bubble: Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake), Jack McGlynn (Houston Dynamo), Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)

Analysis: The “in” players are locks as long as they’re healthy, with Zendejas the only one close to a question. Pulisic obviously is a starter, with Tillman or McKennie in line to run next to him.

From there, Pochettino can make subs based on situations. Medford’s Aaronson is an ideal defensive closer, and Zendejas provides width and creativity.

The last pick could come down to Luna, whom Pochettino rightly adores for his toughness; or Reyna, whose talent is forever followed by injury fears. It would be great to see both make it, but there might not be room unless another position is sacrificed. Reyna has the advantage now and will keep it if he plays regularly for his club.

McGlynn is a long shot, but a hot streak with Houston next year could bring his magic left foot back to the picture.

» READ MORE: Gio Reyna seizes his moment with the USMNT, and is now in the World Cup race

In: Folarin Balogun (AS Monaco, France), Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven, Netherlands), Haji Wright (Coventry City, England)

Bubble: Patrick Agyemang (Derby County, England)

Analysis: It’s truly remarkable that the highest-profile position is one at which the U.S. has the fewest questions. Never before in the program’s 36-year modern era has there been a striker depth chart with this much quality.

If Balogun, Pepi, and Wright are healthy, they’ll be on the plane, and that will be it. If any of them are injured — which Pochettino and every U.S. fan will pray doesn’t happen — Agyemang is first in line to come in.

The field drops so far from there that right now no other strikers truly are in consideration.

» READ MORE: Folarin Balogun is living up to the hype as a long-awaited top striker for the USMNT