Just Steel and Honor Marie are among best long shot value to bet at 2024 Kentucky Derby

While this year’s Kentucky Derby is viewed by many as a top-heavy event, miracles do happen on the track at Churchill Downs.

In 2022, Rich Strike – at 80-1 odds – pulled off the massive upset, and amidst dubious circumstances, Country House got the job done with 30-1 odds in 2019.

Even if there’s no such drama in terms of the first-place horse, there are plenty of other ways to make money on Derby Day.

Here are three underdogs worth watching on Saturday and how you can find value betting on them.

At 10-1, Forever Young is more of an underdog than a long shot, but it’s still worth discussing a horse that would be making history with a win.

He is attempting to become the first horse from Japan and the first to come out of the UAE Derby to win the big one at Churchill Downs.

This horse is on a serious winning streak, with five consecutive victories ahead of the biggest race of his life.

With a winning lineage and the chance to do something special, Forever Young is definitely one to be thinking about, even though his middle-of-the-pack post position is less than ideal.

There’s plenty of talk about breeding and pedigree in this race, and there’s no horse that fits the bill better than Just Steel.

He is the son of legendary Triple Crown winner Justify, who won on the rainiest Derby Day of all time in 2018. He has longer odds than another horse sired by Justify, Just a Touch, who is set at 10-1.

However, Just Steel is considered to be the most experienced horse in the field, with seven races in his 2-year-old season.

He’s not on a winning streak, but with Hall of Fame trainer and four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas in his corner, you can expect this son of a superhorse to be at his best on the biggest stage.

Honor Marie is also part of a fascinating lineage. His father, Honor Code, was a Derby favorite in 2014 before he was scratched with an injury, and his great-grandfather is legendary Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

This horse has shown an ability to run a consistent race and to come from behind.

He hasn’t won yet in 2024, but he had a strong enough 2-year-old season to pick up a few victories, including one at Churchill, and is becoming one of the trendiest longshot champion picks at this year’s Derby.

Endlessly is an extremely fast horse when he’s at his best, and he has been a fairly consistent winner.

The issue is that much of his success has come on turf, a far cry from the sand-silt-clay surface at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

If he’s able to translate his past successes to that new arena, he could definitely pull off a big surprise, whether that means winning the whole thing or simply finishing higher than expected.

With the tightness of the projected top pack in this year’s derby, it’s not worth pulling any of these horses into an exotic bet.

Instead, you’ll want to focus your betting on individual horses to place or show, or in the case of the slightly shorter-shot horses, perhaps even to win should you want to prioritize upside.

Just Steel and Honor Marie to show look like the best value bets from this group.

Forever Young’s 10-1 odds are just a bit too short at this point to justify that type of wager, while Endlessly is too risky; he could fall completely flat at Churchill.

Stick with the descendants of Triple Crown winners with high talent levels and solid post position. Both should over perform their current odds.

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