Back North Carolina covering spread vs Alabama in high scoring Sweet 16 clash

FanDuel Sportsbook has the No. 1 seeded North Carolina Tar Heels as 4.5 point favorites over the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in Thursday’s Sweet 16 clash. UNC is coming off a 16 point win over Michigan State while Alabama is coming off an 11 point win over Grand Canyon.

This game screams high scoring affair when looking at the rosters and numbers of these squads. While I feel good about a high scoring game, my confident pick is UNC covering the spread, but Alabama will look to keep it within striking distance.

These are two of the most high scoring teams in the country. Alabama leads the country in scoring at 90.7 points per game while UNC ranks 16th at 81.8. On a more analytical note, Alabama is third in offensive efficiency while UNC ranks 23rd.

Defensive statistics paint an entirely different picture on these teams. Alabama ranks 348th out of 362 teams in opponent points per game allowed (80.9 while UNC ranks 99th (70.0). In terms of defensive efficiency, Alabama ranks 250th while UNC is 22nd.

Senior guards Mark Sears (21.5 points per game) and R.J. Davis (21.3 points per game) are the two players to watch. Both players like to push fast tempo and are above 40 percent shooters from deep. Sears and Davis respectively measure in at 6′ 1″ and 6′ 0″, which is a negative defensively.

Sears and Davis are the best players on their teams, but both have experienced seniors co-piloting in Aaron Estrada and Armando Bacot. As a whole, these teams are two of the most experienced teams in the country with lots of seniors playing big minutes.

Estrada is another guard who leads the team in assists. The combo of him and Sears will be a tough matchup for Davis and UNC freshman Elliot Cadeau. Bacot is one of the best big men in the country. He’s also UNC’s all-time rebounding leader and second leading all-time scorer.

Both teams are fairly close in rebounding metrics. What surprised me most when doing research was Alabama averaging more offensive rebounds per game than UNC, although the Tar Heels have the better rebounding percentage overall.

Lastly, it’s worth pointing out the edge Alabama has in shooting percentage. Alabama is the 28th most efficient shooting team in the country while UNC ranks 112th. The Crimson Tide are a better shooting team from three and the free throw line as well.

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I already mentioned I expect this game to be high scoring. Although UNC is my pick to cover the 3.5 point spread, I can’t imagine them running away with this under any circumstance due to how fantastic Alabama’s offense is.

UNC went through stretches this season where they played suffocating defense locking down opponents to under 70 points. But they also had games where the effort dipped and they weren’t as physical, which was the case in the first ten minutes against Michigan State.

I don’t think UNC comes out the gates slow again defensively. Alabama isn’t a good defensive team, meaning they could fall behind if UNC is dialed in on both ends. Davis has been sensational in two NCAA Tournament games and I predict Bacot will feast down low.

Harrison Ingram will play a big role in the outcome of this game with his rebounding ability alongside Bacot. In games UNC gets a couple of threes from Ingram and Cormac Ryan, they’re nearly impossible to defeat. I also predict Cadeau will thrive in a high pace game after some struggles in the first two rounds.

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