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Back the point total over in Game 3 between the Celtics and Pacers of the Eastern Conference Finals

Here's why we this bet on the point total from Saturday's Game 3 in Indianapolis.

Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics drives past Andrew Nembhard #2 of the Indiana Pacers during the fourth quarter in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 23, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics drives past Andrew Nembhard #2 of the Indiana Pacers during the fourth quarter in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 23, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)Read moreMaddie Meyer / Getty Images

Indiana returns home down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals following a 126-110 loss to the Celtics on Thursday night.

Now the Pacers might have to play without point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who left Game 2 in the third quarter after suffering a left hamstring injury.

In this preview, I’ll explain why bettors should not expect the Pacers to change their approach following Haliburton’s injury.

Celtics vs. Pacers odds

  1. Spread: Celtics -7 (-110), Pacers +7 (-110)

  2. Money line: Celtics -270, Pacers +220

  3. Total: Over 222.5 (-112), Under 222.5 (-108)

Odds via DraftKings

Celtics analysis

The breaks keep coming for the Celtics, who look destined to win their 18th NBA title.

Boston defeated Miami in five games in the first round, with the Heat missing Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier due to injuries. In the second round, the Celtics faced the Cavaliers, who didn’t have their starting center, Jarrett Allen. Cleveland then lost its best player, Donovan Mitchell, for the series’ final two games.

And now, for a third time this postseason, Boston could face another opponent without its star player.

While the Celtics are undoubtedly loaded with talent, it would be nice to see them at least tested.

Indiana’s inability to close out Game 1 with a four-point lead and 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter seemed to awaken Boston.

And now, with Haliburton’s injury being a significant concern, Boston’s path to the NBA Finals might’ve become more straightforward.

Pacers analysis

When you look at the stats for Game 2, there’s not much more the Pacers could’ve done to win. Indiana shot 52.4% from the floor, only to be outdone by Boston’s 53.4%.

The Pacers shot the ball pretty well for a team that played more than the entire fourth quarter without its starting point guard.

One of the more puzzling things was how early coach Rick Carlisle seemed to wave the white flag. With his team trailing by 13 points after the third quarter, he substituted backup forward Doug McDermott into the game.

McDermott has played in eight of Indiana’s 15 playoff games this season, averaging 5.9 minutes. If he checks into a game, it’s usually because the outcome is likely a foregone conclusion.

Perhaps Carlisle was already moving on to Game 3 after most of his starters played fewer than 30 minutes.

Celtics vs. Pacers pick

Indiana should continue to dictate the pace even if Haliburton doesn’t play.

Indiana averaged 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes without Haliburton this season (13 games), which would still rank them in the league’s top half.

As good as the Celtics are defensively, the Pacers are still shooting over 50% in this series.

Given both teams’ offensive efficiency, we should have enough pace for this game to exceed the total of 222.5 points.

  1. Pick: Over 222.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

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