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Madrid can’t stay perfect forever, and RB Leipzig gives bettors a chance to cash in

Should bettors sell high on perfect Real Madrid?

Konrad Laimer, Timo Werner and Kevin Kampl of RB Leipzig are seen following their side's victory in the Bundesliga match between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg at Red Bull Arena on August 27, 2022 in Leipzig, Germany. (Photo by Matthias Kern/Getty Images)
Konrad Laimer, Timo Werner and Kevin Kampl of RB Leipzig are seen following their side's victory in the Bundesliga match between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg at Red Bull Arena on August 27, 2022 in Leipzig, Germany. (Photo by Matthias Kern/Getty Images)Read moreMatthias Kern / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Real Madrid is the only team left in Europe’s “Big Five” leagues with an unblemished domestic record. Los Blancos are 5-0-0 with a +10 goal differential (15 goals for, five goals against) and boast a +7.7 expected goal (xG) differential in La Liga.

Madrid is also off and running in the Champions League after a 3-0 win at Celtic last week. Oh, and Carlo Ancelotti’s side are also the title-holders in both La Liga and in the Champions League. Everything is clicking at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Will that continue Wednesday in a Champions League match with RB Leipzig?

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Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig odds

Real Madrid: -185

RB Leipzig: +425

Draw: +360

Total goals: Over 3.5 (+115) | Under 3.5 (-160)

Analysis

While it’s been nothing but calm waters for Madrid, the opposite is true of its opponent on Wednesday. RB Leipzig is just 2-2-2 in the Bundesliga and have an even goal differential. A +2.9 xG differential suggests Leipzig has played a bit better than its record suggests, but it’s still been a disappointing start to the campaign considering Die Roten Bullen finished 2021-22 as the hottest team in the Bundesliga.

The team reacted to the sluggish start by sacking Domenico Tedesco and bringing in former Borussia Monchengladbach and Dortmund manager, Marco Rose. Leipzig defeated Dortmund, 3-0, in Rose’s club debut.

Despite the strong result against Dortmund, the market still remains skeptical of Leipzig ahead of a trip to the Spanish capital. Or perhaps, bettors are just very confident that Madrid’s form will continue against an inconsistent side adapting to a new manager.

And while there is no arguing that Madrid should be considerable favorites in this match, it does seem like this number has become inflated enough that there is betting value on the underdog.

» READ MORE: More sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Although Madrid has passed every test it has faced going back to last year’s Champions League knockout stages, it is fair to note that Madrid has not faced a tough schedule out of the gates in 2022-23. Thus far, Madrid has defeated Almeria, Celta Vigo, Espanyol, Real Betis and Mallorca in league play. Those teams sit 14th, 10th, 16th, 13th and third in the league table after five weeks. And even though a trip to Glasgow to take on Celtic is a tricky fixture, Madrid was a big road favorite in that tilt and came out on top.

Leipzig has not done much to inspire much confidence this season, but it finished 2021-22 on an 11-3-3 run with a +27 goal differential in that span. This team should trend up eventually, while Madrid has to regress, at least a little bit, at some point.

Pick

RB Leipzig+425

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