College Football Playoff odds: Georgia, Ohio State lead the way

The College Football Playoff selection committee and those responsible for setting the College Football Playoff odds haven’t exactly seen eye-to-eye over the years.

So it definitely is noteworthy that the committee’s latest rankings, which were released Tuesday night, mostly fall in line with how oddsmakers currently view the 2022-23 college football national championship landscape — with one glaring exception.

Here’s a look at the latest College Football Playoff odds heading into Week 11, which features four head-to-head matchups between teams currently ranked in the College Football Playoff Top 25.

Note: All odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Nov. 9.

Might as well start with that aforementioned glaring difference of opinion between the College Football Playoff selection committee and oddsmakers.

The three teams at the top of this week’s rankings — Georgia (9-0), Ohio State (9-0) and Michigan (9-0) — mirror the top three teams on FanDuel’s college football national championship betting board.

Fresh off a 27-13 beatdown of previously undefeated Tennessee, Georgia (-120) is now the odds-on favorite to successfully defend its 2021-22 crown. No. 2 Ohio State (+250) is the clear second choice at FanDuel, followed by Big Ten rival and third-ranked Michigan (+800).

Now for that difference of opinion: In the wake of Tennessee’s loss at Georgia, the committee dropped the Volunteers (8-1) from the top spot to No. 5 (and thus currently out of the playoff picture).

At the same time, the committee elevated unbeaten TCU (9-0) from No. 7 to the all-important fourth slot.

Oddsmakers’ response to that decision: Not so fast.

Not only do bookmakers have Tennessee (+1400) fourth in the College Football Playoff odds market, but they have three other teams between the Vols and TCU: Oregon (8-1, +2500), LSU (7-2, +4000) and USC (8-1, +6000).

That’s right: A two-loss LSU squad is ahead of the unbeaten Horned Frogs in the national championship odds market. In fact, TCU (+8000) is tied at FanDuel with another two-loss team — Alabama, which suffered its second defeat last Saturday at LSU.

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When looking at the broader picture, you’ll notice only a one spot difference between where Tennessee, Oregon, LSU and USC sit in the rankings (Nos. 5, 6, 7 and 8) versus their position on the national championship odds board (Nos. 4, 5, 6 and 7).

However, there’s major disagreement with TCU (No. 4 in the rankings; tied for No. 8 in odds).

That disagreement is reflected in the point spread for the Horned Frogs’ game at No. 18 Texas on Saturday: TCU is a 7-point road underdog against the Longhorns (6-3).

Four teams will effectively see their College Football Playoff hopes extinguished Saturday.

In addition to No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas, the Week 11 schedule includes No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 25 Washington (7-2); No. 10 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1); and No. 16 Tulane (8-1) vs. No. 22 Central Florida (7-2).

However, in reality — and by that we mean the sports betting world — only a dozen teams have a legitimate shot at the four College Football Playoff berths with two weeks remaining in the regular season.

As you can see, Georgia (-4000) is a near-cinch to make it back to the four-team tournament. To a lesser degree, so is Ohio State (-700), which already is a big home favorite in its season-ending Nov. 26 showdown against Michigan.

At the moment, Tennessee is the only other strong favorite to make the playoff. That’s because the Vols are projected to win out against Missouri (home), South Carolina (road) and Vanderbilt (road).

Assuming that happens, Tennessee will be 11-1. Although the Vols wouldn’t qualify for the SEC championship game (because of their loss to SEC East Division foe Georgia), the playoff committee likely would take them — unless the SEC West champion upsets Georgia in the conference title tilt.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s situation is crystal clear: If the Wolverines (+135) follow expected home wins over Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks with an upset at Ohio State, they’ll be back in the playoff for the second straight year.

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Beyond FanDuel’s current top four favorites to make the College Football Playoff — Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and Michigan — are three one-loss Pac-12 teams (Oregon, USC and UCLA), plus two-loss LSU.

Oregon, USC and UCLA are interesting case studies because only two Pac-12 teams have been invited to the College Football Playoff party in the event’s eight-year history. Oregon qualified for the inaugural playoff in 2014-15, and Washington got a bid two years later.

LSU also is interesting because no two-loss team has ever gotten a playoff bid.

And what about TCU, which is looking to become the first Big 12 team other than Oklahoma to reach the playoff? The Horned Frogs (+650) are tied with Clemson (8-1) for the ninth-shortest odds at FanDuel.

But, hey, at least they’re ahead of Alabama.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.