College Football: Penn State backed by sportsbooks in Week 1 matchup vs. Purdue

Penn State is entering year eight of the James Franklin era, with expectations set modestly for a program that finished 7-6 (4-5 in conference) in 2021 with a loss to Arkansas in the Outback Bowl.

While the Nittany Lions return signal-caller Sean Clifford for his sixth season, many are expecting Michigan or Ohio State to represent the Big Ten East Division at season’s end, reflected in the preseason AP and Coaches’ Poll that left the Nittany Lions unranked.

Just like last year, Penn State will open its season on the road against a Big Ten West foe, this time the Purdue Boilermakers, who finished last season with a surprising 9-4 record (6-3 in conference) that included wins over No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State.

Despite their success last season, the Boilermakers are not catching much love from various sportsbooks, as Penn State is favored by 3.5-points by most major books.

That’s a half-point increase from the summer, when Penn State opened as a three-point favorite that blossomed to 3.5 over the last couple of weeks. In fact, at DraftKings, Penn State has received over 82% of the money on this matchup, which means we could see this line tick up another half point by the time we get to kickoff Thursday night.

This will be the 20th meeting all-time between these two programs. Penn State has won nine straight, including a 35-7 blowout back in 2019. Overall, the Nittany Lions hold a 15-3-1 record over their 19 meetings since the first one back in 1951. The last time the Purdue beat Penn State was back in 2004, and the Boilermakers haven’t won at home against Penn State since 2003, losing their last four in West Lafayette by an average of 22 points per contest.

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Last season, Penn State only played in two games where they were favored on the road during Big Ten play, against Maryland (-10) and Michigan State (-2.5). The Nittany Lions split those games, both straight up and against the spread, by beating Maryland, 28-0 and falling to Michigan State, 30-27.

The Boilermakers also split games in Big Ten play as home underdogs, losing to Wisconsin, which entered the game as 3.5-point favorites, and beating Michigan State as 2.5-point underdogs. Over its last four games as home underdogs, Purdue is an even 2-2 dating back to the 2020 season.

According to the College Football Database at Odds Shark, Purdue has never beaten Penn State as a home underdog, dating back to the start of the 1997 season. In the last seven matchups in West Lafayette, five have resulted in losses against the spread for the Boilermakers, with one push coming in the 2008 matchup when Penn State won 20-6 as 14-point favorites.

Could this trend change on Thursday night? We’ll have to wait and see, but the history, and the odds, seem to be in Penn State’s favor.

Penn State (-175 ML) at Purdue (+145)

Betting Line: Penn State -3.5

O/U: 53.5 (-110/-110)

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