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English Premier League odds, predictions: Our best bets for Saturday’s slate

The Action Network's Nick Hennion breaks down his two best bets for Saturday's English Premier League schedule.

Alexis Mac Allister of Brighton looks on during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion at Old Trafford on August 07, 2022 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Alexis Mac Allister of Brighton looks on during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion at Old Trafford on August 07, 2022 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)Read moreMichael Regan / Getty Images

The English Premier League is back for its fourth matchday of the 2022-23 campaign, and Saturday features some top matchups.

Arguably the most riveting fixture comes at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea, fresh off a drubbing from Leeds United, welcome Leicester City, which is still seeking its first win of the season. Elsewhere, Big Six sides Arsenal and Manchester City welcome Fulham and Crystal Palace, respectively, as both seek to continue torrent starts to the season.

Where are the betting opportunities located on Saturday? Here are my best bets for Saturday’s card. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Rank Betting Site Bonus States Claim
1
BetMGM Logo
INQUIRERMGM$1,000 Risk-Free Bet
  • AZ, NJ, IN, CO, DC, IA, MI, TN, VA, WV, WY only.
  • New customers only. Must be 21+. Welcome offer not available in NY & PA. Full T&C apply.
2
Caesars Sportsbook
$1,250Risk-Free Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
  • NY, NJ, WV, IA, CO, IN, MI, VA, TN, AZ, LA, IL Only.
  • New users only, 21 or older. Full T&Cs apply.
3
Caesars Sportsbook
$150 in Free Bets
  • AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY Only.
  • New users only, 21 or older. Full T&Cs apply.
4
WynnBet
$250 Deposit Match100% First Deposit Bonus
  • AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NY, PA, VA only.
  • 21+. New customers only. T&C apply

Best Bet No. 1 - Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline (-115) vs. Leeds United

A sell high spot on Leeds United? Color me interested in the Seagulls.

As mentioned earlier, Leeds arrives at this fixture fresh off a 3-0 win against Chelsea and are unbeaten for the first three matches of the season. However, Brighton & Hove Albion have properly bossed the Peacocks in their recent head-to-head meetings. In the last four meetings, manager Graham Potter’s side is unbeaten against the Peacocks (W2-D2) and has dominated based on the underlying metrics.

In those four fixtures, the Seagulls have created 11 big scoring chances against only three for Leeds, per fotmob.com, and have created 2.18 expected goals per 90 minutes. On the flip-side, Leeds has surpassed one expected goal only once in those last four head-to-head encounters.

Plus, for all of Leeds’s success this season, one area in which they still struggle is playing through pressure. To date this season, manager Jesse Marsch’s side sits 11th in successful pressure success rate against, per fbref.com. Meanwhile, Brighton ranks eighth in the league in the corresponding category a season after finishing second in the league in successful pressure rate.

For those reasons, back the hosts at anything better than -125 on the three-way moneyline.

» READ MORE: UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Group draw reaction, early bets

Best Bet No. 2 - Chelsea Goal-Line (-1.5) vs. Leicester City (+105)

If we’re selling high on Leeds United, let’s also buy low on Chelsea.

The Blues have dropped points in two consecutive matches, but should be able to rediscover their winning ways against a poor Leicester City side. To date, the Foxes have conceded 10 big scoring chances, which is tied for the most in the Premier League. Yet, manager Brendan Rodgers’s side has only conceded eight goals on those 10 chances, so negative defensive regression could be on the way.

Plus, Leicester has historically struggled to play solid defense away from home against Big Six opposition. In its last seven fixtures against the league’s top clubs, Leicester is conceding 2.2 expected goals per 90 minutes and has a -1.87 xGDiff per 90 minutes in those matches, per fbref.com.

Against Chelsea, Leicester has struggled immensely of late. Last season, despite stealing points at Stamford Bridge, the Foxes lost the match 1.85-0.10 on expected goals and 3-0 on big scoring chances. Across both meetings last season, Chelsea posted a 4-0.44 advantage on expected goals and a 8-1 advantage on big scoring chances.

For those reasons, lay the goal-and-a-half at anything better than -105.

» READ MORE: Global Soccer odds, predictions: Our three best non-EPL bets this weekend

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.