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Flyers vs. Maple Leafs odds, predictions: Situation favors rested Toronto

With Philly in a back-to-back spot, look for slumping Leafs to wake up and post a blowout victory

Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost and Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Pierre Engvall battle for the puck during a 2019 game in Philadelphia. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost and Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Pierre Engvall battle for the puck during a 2019 game in Philadelphia. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)Read moreMitchell Leff / Getty Images

The Flyers suffered a gut-wrenching loss on the scoreboard Tuesday night in New York. However, they delivered us a winner by cashing on the puck line (+1.5 goals) in a 1-0 overtime defeat to the Rangers.

The main reason we recommended that puck-line wager on Philadelphia? Goaltender Carter Hart, who was absolutely dazzling in net.

The main reason we’re not touching Philadelphia in Toronto on Wednesday? No Carter Hart between the pipes.

Here’s how we are betting Flyers vs. Maple Leafs, which is already Philadelphia’s third back-to-back situation on the young season.

Note: Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 2.

Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Maple Leafs -1.5 goals, -125 (at BetMGM)

Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Analysis

Toronto has just four victories (including one in overtime) in 10 games. Only one of those victories has been by multiple goals (and it didn’t happen at home). And the Maple Leafs are coming off a grueling five-game, eight-day road trip that started with that lone multi-goal victory (4-1 in Winnipeg) and ended with four consecutive losses, all as a favorite.

Yet we’re still playing Toronto on the puck line Wednesday, because it’s difficult to trust Hart’s backup against an explosive team led by Auston Mathews. It’s also difficult to trust a shorthanded Flyers offense that has been blanked in two of its last four games.

As for that backup netminder: Felix Sandstrom has made two starts in place of Hart this season, both when Philly was on the second night of a back-to-back. One was on the road against a prolific scoring team (Florida), and Sandstrom gave up every goal in a 4-3 loss. The other was at home against the NHL’s most anemic offense (San Jose), and he gave up two goals in a 3-0 defeat.

» READ MORE: Flyers lose 1-0 to the Rangers in overtime battle between goalies Carter Hart, Igor Shesterkin

Playing in front of Sandstrom on Wednesday is a Flyers attack that got off a season-low 19 shots at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Conversely, Hart faced 36 pucks, stopping 35.

True, the Maple Leafs concluded their road trip by allowing four goals to every California team (San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim). However, four of those 12 goals were scored on the power play. Philadelphia? It has three goals in its last 21 power-play opportunities over the last six games and is just 6-for-31 with a man advantage this season.

While the Flyers were working overtime in Manhattan on Tuesday, the Leafs were enjoying their second straight full day of rest. So they should be raring to go in front of their home crowd.

Even though Toronto only has that one multi-goal victory this season — and even though Philadelphia has just one multi-goal loss — we’re backing the far-more talented team that’s in a far better situation.

Play the Leafs on the puck line at BetMGM and look for a blowout victory — which is exactly what they delivered all three times they faced the Flyers last season (3-0, 6-3 and 5-2).

Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Moneyline: Flyers (+240) @ Maple Leafs (-300)

  2. Puck line: Flyers +1.5 goals (+105) @ Maple Leafs -1.5 goals (-125)

  3. Total: 6.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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