Tour Championship odds, predictions: Our two best derivative bets

With our statistical modeling strategy established for the 2022 Tour Championship at East Lake, let’s begin handing out some bets!

We begin as always with our top derivative selections for the event. This week, bettors are faced with the challenge of handicapping the various derivative markets with the staggered scoring element included, leaving limited opportunities to get involved with the top players.

That said, I’ve identified two markets that provide bettors decent value based on my modeling and each players’s course history in Georgia. With that established, let’s dive into the selections. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

With the bonus strokes applied and all ties considered winners, Rory McIlroy only needs to maintain his current position to cash this ticket. Considering his positive history at East Lake, that seems doable.

Over his last 12 rounds at East Lake, the four-time major champion ranks second in the field in birdies or better gained and eighth in the field in bogey avoidance. Additionally, he’s fifth in the field in SG: T2G — my most emphasized stat this week — and ranks fourth in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds at this track.

In terms of his modeling output, Rory rates out second overall in the field over his previous 12 rounds. Across that span, he’s first in SG: T2G, second on approach and ninth in both birdies gained and bogey avoidance. Further, the Northern Irishman sits fourth overall in SG: Par 4′s, GIRs Gained and SG: Around the Green.

Given how stellar was Rory was tee-to-green last week at the BMW — +10.6 strokes overall, his second-best output of the calendar year — I expect he’ll shine at East Lake. If he can get his putter going at a course where he’s historically performed very well (he lost 4.6 strokes putting to the field last week) expect him to do no worse than maintain this position.

Adam Scott has caught fire since the FedEx Cup playoffs began and now finds himself at a course where he’s previously excelled.

Across his last 12 rounds at East Lake, Scott ranks fourth in the field in SG: Total and leads the field in both SG: T2G and SG: Approach. Although the putter remains a concern — Scott has gained strokes with the flat-stick only once in five appearances at East Lake — I’m hoping his putting performances in the first two playoff events carry over to East Lake.

In terms of his output in my modeling, I’m largely considering how Scott ranks out in his last two events. Across his previous eight rounds, he’s fourth overall in the field in that statistical projection. Over that span, he’s third in the field in birdies or better gained, fourth in bogey avoidance and third overall in Par 4 Efficiency.

It’s slightly alarming that he’s 24th of 30 in SG: Approach, but he’s simultaneously fourth in GIRs gained. Hopefully, a return to a friendly course sees some positive regression in that department as he makes up some ground on the leaders.

Currently sitting T-25th, the 2012 Masters champion only needs to make up three strokes to finish in a top-10 position. At +450, I’m willing to take a flier on Scott continuing his hot run.

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