Bet on Mavericks to cover as road underdog against Thunder in Game 1 of WCSF matchup

Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks took care of the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs without much resistance.

Dallas found ways to limit James Harden’s offensive impact as the series progressed, holding him to merely 7-for-28 shooting from the field over his final two games.

Can the Mavericks do the same with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who swept the Pelicans in four games of the first round?

Let’s dive into our expectations for this series and make a Game 1 prediction below.

Odds via FanDuel

(9:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, TNT)

The deadline trades that brought Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington to Dallas appear to have been the missing pieces for the Mavericks.

With Gafford on the floor, they have gone 25-8 in regular-season and playoff games, and their net rating of +7.5 since Feb. 10 – the day of Gafford’s first game in a Dallas uniform – is tied with Minnesota for the second-highest rating in that time frame.

Gafford gives the Mavericks another lob threat and physical interior presence, while Washington provides more scoring at the forward position.

Additionally, while Lu Dort is a phenomenal defender and a formidable opponent for Luka Doncic, he is just as physical as Dort and won’t be deterred by his physicality.

In fact, Doncic has averaged 35.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 11 assists on roughly 48% shooting from the field in his past five games against Dort.

Oklahoma City also has a few defensive options to throw at Kyrie Irving, including rookie Cason Wallace, who is quick enough laterally to slow Irving down some. The Thunder’s perimeter defense could make the difference in this series.

However, a few things concern me about this Thunder team.

First, OKC ranks 28th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. The Thunder are not a very good rebounding team, and while Dallas isn’t as effective on the glass as a team like the Knicks or Celtics, it does have a few players who can wreak havoc.

For players who appeared in at least 50 games and averaged at least 20 minutes per game, the Mavericks have two players in the top 11 in offensive rebounding percentage: Gafford and Dereck Lively III.

Additionally, the Mavericks have some players they can throw at SGA to try and slow him down, including Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum.

» READ MORE: Back Cavaliers covering as road underdogs vs Celtics in Game 1

I’m not concerned about Doncic’s nagging knee injury since he has had some rest and time to recover.

OKC has the rest advantage after sweeping New Orleans in four games, but fresh legs don’t always equate to great shooting and instant offense, especially for an NBA team that has not played in a week.

I’ll side with the Mavs in Game 1.

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