Back Daniel Gafford to give the Mavericks a spark offensively vs. Timberwolves in Game 2

After losing the series opener at home, the Minnesota Timberwolves will hope to produce a bounce-back effort in Game 2 on Friday night.

I must admit that I had no expectations heading into this series because Minnesota’s 3-1 edge in the regular season was somewhat flawed. After all, Dallas was without key players in each of the losses.

While Minnesota should have a matchup advantage in the frontcourt, it lost the battle inside the paint, 62-38.

The perimeter is where Dallas should have an edge, but it shot just 6-of-25 from beyond the arc compared to 18-of-49 for Minnesota.

During the regular season, Dallas ranked second in 3-point attempts and third in field goals, while Minnesota ranked 15th and 23rd in those categories.

Thus, considering the unpredictable start to this series, I prefer to pass on the side and total and pivot to the player props market instead.

Odds via DraftKings

It’s not often an NBA team wins a game after making 12 fewer 3-pointers than the opponent. But even with the Mavericks’ woeful perimeter shooting, they still shot 49.4% from the floor in Game 1.

With the Mavericks repeatedly succeeding inside the paint, there was no need to panic as they maintained their rhythm.

Moreover, despite making 18 3-pointers in the game, the Timberwolves never led by more than nine points. Anytime you can keep your deficit within single digits, you’re a few buckets away from crawling back into the game.

It’s unlikely Dallas will shoot as poorly from the perimeter as it did in Game 1. There’s certainly reason for some tempered optimism in Game 2 if you’re a Mavericks supporter.

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Coach Chris Finch read his players the riot act during their post-Game 1 film session, highlighting areas where their effort simply wasn’t good enough.

At this point, the Timberwolves’ success depends on their will and discipline because their frontcourt players must play more on the interior.

The Timberwolves got perimeter-happy, and their center, Karl-Anthony Towns, was the biggest culprit, shooting just 2-of-9 on 3-point attempts.

With Minnesota’s players scattered around the perimeter, Dallas controlled the glass and outrebounded the T-Wolves, 48-40.

Towns is often criticized for playing too far away from the paint. His willingness to attack from the post could improve Minnesota’s chances to win Game 2.

The Timberwolves did plenty of talking ahead of Game 1, with Anthony Edwards broadcasting to the world that he would guard Kyrie Irving. That didn’t quite go according to plan, as Irving torched Minnesota for 24 first-half points.

Irving finished the game with 30 points, while his backcourt partner, Luka Doncic, led all scorers with 33.

Irving and Doncic are partly responsible for the Mavericks’ dominance inside the paint because of their ability to draw defenders when they drive to the basket. As good as the Timberwolves are defensively, Dallas has multiple players looking for easy lob opportunities.

Center Daniel Gafford is undoubtedly one of those players who should continue to benefit when Dallas’ drives to the basket. Even if Minnesota opts to try to blitz the ballhandler, the 6-foot-7 Doncic should still be able to see over the defenders as a point forward.

For whatever reason, Gafford’s player props remain undervalued, with FanDuel projecting his points at 7.5 – a number he has gone over in each of his last seven games.

I’m not so sure the Timberwolves have found the answer to slowing down the Mavericks inside the paint. And until the bookmakers make the necessary adjustment, I’ll continue riding the over with Gafford’s player props.

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