Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction: The Hawkeyes are an ugly underdog

The Michigan Wolverines passed their first true test of the 2022 season, but they didn’t look all that comfortable doing it.

The Wolverines closed as 17.5-point favorites against Maryland, but never really looked a threat to cover the three-score spread in a 34-27 win at The Big House. Michigan allowed 397 yards and failed to create any havoc against the first legitimate offense it faced so far, with all due respect to Hawaii, UConn and Colorado State.

That was the biggest question surrounding the Wolverines entering the new season — can they generate chaos without Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo? So far, the answer is no. Five different Maryland players were credited with an explosive catch on Saturday and there was very little pressure in the Terrapins’ backfield.

Michigan’s secondary remains a strength, as Pro Football Focus grades it as the best overall coverage team in the nation, but the inability to create pressure and generate tackles for a loss is worth noting for a team that had two generational talents last season.

J.J. McCarthy will continue to start under center with Cade McNamara still recovering from an injury and after lighting it up against Hawaii and UConn, McCarthy struggled at times against Maryland. The Michigan offense ranks fifth in rushing success rate, 17th in line yards, 35th in passing success rate and 11th in finishing drives, but those numbers are likely a little inflated given the quality of competition.

McCarthy and the offense will step up in weight class against Iowa on the road in Week 5.

» READ MORE: Northwestern vs. Penn State Prediction: How to play the over/under

Iowa’s schedule also has not packed much punch, but it’s hard to ignore that the Hawkeyes defense have yet to allow a team (South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers) put up more than 10 points. The Hawkeyes defense ranks 19th in rushing success rate, 8th in line yards, seventh in passing success rate and fifth in finishing drives.

There is very little margin for error for Iowa’s defense, though, as the offense sits outside the top-120 (!) in rushing success rate, passing success rate, line yards and finishing drives.

Betting on the Iowa offense is not the ideal way to spend a Saturday afternoon, but the Hawkeyes defense should be stout enough to keep them in this matchup. With McCarthy under center going up against a great defense, the Wolverines will lean heavily on the rushing attack — they’ve ran the ball on 61% of snaps this season — and that should play out well for underdog backers. Not only does it play into Iowa’s strength, but it also keeps the clock moving.

Iowa’s offense should also spend most of its time running the ball, which should shorten the game and hopefully limit the opportunities for Spencer Petras to make a mistake in the air.

At the time of writing, this spread is sitting at Michigan -10.5, but it’s hard to imagine anybody rushing to the window to bet a Hawkeyes team that has scored three touchdowns on offense against a cupcake schedule, so you can probably wait out this market and see if you can get a higher number if you’re going to join the Iowa Pain Train.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.