Bet on high-scoring game between Michigan State and Mississippi State in NCAA Tournament first-round

Michigan State seemed to be a bubble team heading into Selection Sunday. However, the Spartans earned a No. 9 seed, which means the Selection Committee never had any lingering doubts about putting them in the NCAA Tournament.

This will be Michigan State’s 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, making it the longest active streak in men’s Division 1 basketball.

Perhaps the Spartans’ success under head coach Tom Izzo played a role in receiving a bid to the Big Dance.

While the Spartans undoubtedly have their share of detractors, they could prove their doubters wrong by making a deep run in March.

But first, they’ll have to get past a Mississippi State team in the First Round on Thursday afternoon.

The Spartans opened as 2.5-point favorites but that number has already been bet down to -1.

I’m not exactly sure I’m ready to fade a head coach of Izzo’s quality, so I prefer to look to the total for my best bet in this matchup.

The discussion surrounding whether Michigan State should be in the NCAA Tournament is fascinating. At 19-14, the Spartans have the worst record of any team to receive an at-large bid this year.

In an interview with CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander, the NCAA’s committee chair, Charles McClelland, explained their reasoning for including Michigan State in the field of 68.

“It wasn’t only the record, but it was the wins against Quad 1 teams. It was their strength of schedule and overall body of work as we continue to say,” McClelland said on the CBS Sports HQ show.

“We did take notice of those losses, but they had some significant wins, they had some really big opportunities, and the matrix was there in order for Michigan [State] to be squarely into the tournament.”

A closer look reveals that of Michigan State’s three Quad 1 wins, two were at home (Indiana State and Illinois), and its third victory over Baylor was played on a neutral floor. However, that was essentially a home game because the venue was in Detroit at Little Ceasars Arena.

The Spartans did return five of their top six scorers from last year, with four starters and 78% of their player minutes.

Thus, one might’ve expected them to have a solid offense coming into this season. However, according to TeamRankings, Michigan State sits 101st in offensive efficiency (107 points per 100 possessions).

Izzo does prefer a more deliberate style of play. The Spartans rank 289th in pace with 68.4 possessions per 40 minutes.

While slowing the pace down might work in the Big 10, I don’t expect the Spartans to be as successful against a non-conference Power 6 school like Mississippi State.

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This season, we’ve seen a blistering pace in games involving SEC teams, as KillerSports.com lists the South Carolina Gamecocks as the only team with an average total lower than 140.

Moreover, in games involving at least one SEC team, the over went 127-103 (55.2%).

Mississippi State plays more than two possessions faster than the Spartans, ranking 166th with an average of 70.8 per game.

The 3-point shot should play a vital role in this matchup, considering the Bulldogs average 7.2 3-point field goals while giving up seven per game to the opposition.

Conversely, Michigan State allows opponents 7.5 3-pointers per contest.

Mississippi State also ranks 169th in opponent free-throw attempts, with 18.7 per game. Therefore, the Spartans could shoot a fair amount of free throws with the game clock turned off.

Per RealGM.com, the Spartans rank 120th in points in the paint, and their ability to get inside the lane should allow them to draw more fouls.

When you put it all together, the tendencies of these teams should bode well for the over in this matchup.

I wouldn’t usually recommend playing an over in the First Round of an NCAA Tournament game that tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET. However, I can’t ignore that this total of 127.5 was simply too low.

According to our Action Labs database, the over is 9-5 (64.3%) in NCAA Tournament First Round games with an opening total of 127.5 or fewer points.

Since the opening, we’ve already seen this total rise as high as 130.5 points.

Moreover, if we adjust our parameters to include only games where the total increased, the over improves to 6-2 (75%).

After running the numbers, my model projects a total closer to 135 points, giving me a significant edge with 130 still available at PointsBet.

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