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The Action Network’s Michael Arinze breaks down the series opener between the Phillies and Diamondbacks
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On Sunday, the Phillies snapped a six-game winning streak with a 5-0 loss to the Pirates.
At 72-56, the Phillies remain the second wild card team in the National League, four games ahead of the Brewers, who are currently on the outside looking in.
Odds provided by FanDuel
Next up for the Phillies is a West Coast road trip beginning with three games in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. Ranger Suárez will get the start for the Phillies while the Diamondbacks will counter with Madison Bumgarner.
The Phillies are once again heavy favorites, but my modeling suggests they may be a tad bit overvalued in this spot.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks MLB odds
Moneyline: PHI (-188) vs. CIN (+158)
Spread: PHI -1.5 (-114) vs. CIN +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-120)
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks probable pitchers
Ranger Suárez (8-5, 3.38 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (6-13, 4.53 ERA)
We’ll need to pick our spots the rest of the way because, according to Tankathon.com, the Phillies rank in the top half of the softest remaining schedule this season, so they’ll be heavy favorites on some nights like they are Monday in Arizona.
My approach for this game is primarily based on value. My model makes the Phillies no more than a -167 favorite, with the Diamondbacks a +151 underdog. Based on those projections, I’ve got a slight edge to Arizona in this spot.
What’s interesting about the Diamondbacks is they come into this contest off a three-game road sweep against the White Sox. And despite being eight games below .500., the Diamondbacks have performed much better at home (32-32).
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Bumgarner has also pitched better at home as he’s 5-5 with a 3.97 ERA vs. 1-8 with a 5.37 ERA on the road. And if we look at the head-to-head splits, Bumgarner could have the edge against the Phillies. In 117 plate appearances, Philadelphia is batting just .190 with a .251 wOBA vs. Bumgarner. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are hitting .308 with a .357 wOBA in 60 plate appearances against Suárez.
» READ MORE: How the Phillies may make use of an expanded roster in September
Overall, there’s no question that Suárez has been the better of the two pitchers this season. But if there’s ever a time to fade the Phillies, I’d have to think it’s in the first game of a cross-country trip.
Bumgarner is in a bit of a rut. He’s allowed at least five runs in each of his past three outings. And while the Diamondbacks have twice lost three straight starts of his this season, they won the next game on both occasions.
According to the KillerSports.com database, when Bumgarner’s teams are on a three-game winning streak, and he’s coming off a loss in three straight starts, he’s a perfect 3-0 in this spot.
I love quirky stats like that. I’ll take a shot with the home underdogs here at +158.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick
Diamondbacks ML +158
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