MLB Preview: Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Prediction
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze explains why he’s targeting the total in Tuesday’s Marlins-Phillies matchup
The Phillies probably could’ve done without a day off on Monday after reeling off five straight victories and nine wins in their past ten games.
Next up for the Phillies is a three-game series against the Marlins to finish out their homestand.
Zack Wheeler will start for Philadelphia, while Miami will counter with a southpaw in Braxton Garrett.
Wheeler is having another excellent campaign as he could finish with a third-straight sub-three ERA on the season. What’s interesting is that given his quality, one might think Wheeler is often involved in low-scoring games.
I’ll dig into the numbers to see if the data supports that assessment as we explore a possible play on the total for Tuesday night.
Marlins vs. Phillies MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: MIA (+195) vs. PHI (-250)
Spread: MIA +1.5 (-105) vs. PHI -1.5 (-115)
Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Marlins vs. Phillies probable pitchers
Braxton Garrett (2-5, 3.38 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.69 ERA)
Although Garrett is having a decent year in his own right, he’ll face a difficult task trying to slow down this Phillies offense. Philadelphia has scored at least five runs in four straight games and over ten runs in each of its past two games.
The Phillies’ current lineup has also had success against Garrett despite a small sample size. In 16 plate appearances, Philadelphia hitters are batting .500 with a .608 wOBA.
This season, the Phillies continue to have success against left-handers given their .256 AVG / .333 OBP / .433 SLG split vs. .247 AVG / .306 OBP / .421 SLG against righties.
As good as Wheeler’s numbers have been throughout his career, the Marlins have always been a bit of a bugaboo for him. In 69 plate appearances, Miami’s current lineup is hitting .308 against Wheeler with a .340 wOBA.
When the two teams met in April, Miami torched Wheeler seven earned runs in three innings en route to an 11-3 victory.
Although this season has predominantly been unprofitable for over bettors, the Phillies have been one of the brighter spots as they rank second with a 55-48-5 mark, for a profit of 2.38 units.
The weather can often play a part in totals, and I suspect that’s why we’ve seen at least nine runs scored in each of Philadelphia’s past four games.
While the East Coast remains under a heat wave, humidity has also been an issue as it can increase the distance a baseball travels. And according to ballparkpal.com, there could be wind gusts up to 10 mph blowing out to right field.
I took a look at Wheeler’s overall numbers, and in his career, the total is 98-78-14 to the over for a profit of 14.73 units. And when he’s pitching at home against the Marlins, the total is 6-4-1 to the over for 1.96 units.
Lastly, when Wheeler pitches at home against the Marlins with an opening total of 7.5 or lower, the over is 4-0-1 (+4.13 units) to the over in this spot.
When you put it all together, I think the over is worth a look, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see this total increase by a half-run before the first pitch.
Marlins vs. Phillies pick
Over 7.5 runs (-110)
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