MLB NL Cy Young Odds, Picks: Can Anyone Challenge Sandy Alcantara?
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze explores the NL Cy Young race and highlights two contenders still within reach of winning the award
The NL Cy Young race might seem all but over as Marlins right-hander, Sandy Alcantara is the odds-on-favorite at -275.
However, with roughly eight weeks remaining in the regular season, we could still see a few twists and turns before it’s all said and done.
We’ll look at how Alcantara has fared thus far and identify any potential candidates who could make a late run to win the award.
Odds provided by BetMGM
Sandy Alcantara (-275)
In 22 starts, Alcantara is 10-4 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.
In addition to having the lowest starter’s ERA in the National League, Alcantara’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value of 6.0 is also the highest among all pitchers in baseball.
Cy Young voters are often enamored with two other stats: innings pitched and strikeouts. The Dominican native ranks first in baseball with 158 1/3 innings and fourth in the National League with 141 strikeouts.
In his final start in July, Alcantara hit a blip, allowing four earned runs in five innings of work against the Mets. However, he bounced by pitching his third complete game of the season in a 3-0 shutout victory over the Reds.
Youth is definitely on Alcantara’s side because, at 26 years of age, his ability to continue pitch deep into his starts could ultimately set him apart if this race gets any closer.
Tony Gonsolin (+3000)
With odds at 30-to-1, Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin isn’t getting enough love for a pitcher that’s 13-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP.
Initially, I held out hope that Gonsolin would finish the season undefeated but losing just one of 14 decisions isn’t too shabby either.
The fact that Gonsolin is a member of the Dodgers seems to hurt his Cy Young chances because he does benefit from a potent lineup that can erase mistakes with one swing of a bat.
And while I understand that Gonsolin is further behind Alcantara in critical metrics such as WAR (3.5), innings pitched (109 2/3), and strikeouts (102), I think his odds are a bit mispriced for a pitcher who boasted a 1.54 ERA at the beginning of July.
With a 0.89 WHIP that’s the best in baseball among starters, Gonsolin deserves more credit from the bookmakers.
The Value Play
Max Scherzer (+3500)
If Gonsolin is 30-to-1, then Max Scherzer at 35-to-1 is an even bigger head-scratcher. Like Alcantara, Scherzer has a sub-two ERA (1.98), and he’s 8-2 with a 0.90 WHIP.
At 38 years of age, Scherzer’s hardly missed a beat as he’s registered a quality start in each of his last seven outings.
Scherzer missed almost seven weeks due to injury, but given how well the Mets offense is performing lately, he has a great chance to rack up even more victories down the stretch.
Should Alcantara falter, you can make a solid case for Scherzer to win the award as his advanced numbers (2.44 FIP / 3.12 xFIP) are even better than the Marlins’ right-hander (2.86 FIP / 3.34 xFIP).
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