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Phillies vs. Astros Game 6 odds, predictions: Bet on another low-scoring World Series game

With two horses on the mound and rested relief pitchers behind them, expect the Under to cash for a fourth straight game

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler delivers a pitch in Game 1 of the World Series in Houston. Wheeler returns to the mound at Minute Maid Park on Saturday for Game 6 of the World Series. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler delivers a pitch in Game 1 of the World Series in Houston. Wheeler returns to the mound at Minute Maid Park on Saturday for Game 6 of the World Series. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)Read moreCarmen Mandato / Getty Images

The 2022 World Series has reached the elimination point, with the Houston Astros taking a 3-2 lead back home for Game 6 on Saturday night.

Of course, plenty of baseball bettors have already seen their bankrolls eliminated, thanks to a series that has been as maddening to handicap as it has been exhilarating to watch.

Consider what we’ve seen through five games:

Three wins by the road team, two by the home team. Two one-run nailbiters bookending three multi-run blowouts. Houston wins two as a favorite (Games 2 and 5); Philadelphia wins two as an underdog (Games 1 and 3); and the Astros take the one pick-em contest (Game 4).

And from a totals perspective, we’ve gotten one no-doubt Over (Game 1), one push (Game 2) and three straight Unders (including Game 3 by a half-run, despite the Phillies hitting five homers).

So how should you attack Saturday’s Game 6 of the World Series from a wagering perspective? After digging into the Phillies vs. Astros Game 6 odds, we’ve found a play with strong value — really, the only play with value.

Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 4.

Phillies vs. Astros Prediction

  1. Under 7 runs, -120 (at BetMGM)

Phillies vs. Astros Prediction: Analysis

We understand why oddsmakers have made Houston a modest favorite to finish off Philadelphia on Saturday night. After all, the Astros are back home and riding the momentum of two straight wins in Philadelphia (including a combined no-hitter in Game 4).

And they’re handing the ball to stud southpaw Framber Valdez, who completely toyed with the Phillies twice in the span of 24 days in October, including a brilliant 6 1/3-inning performance in Game 2 at home.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ art of ‘flushing it’ will be put to the test with a must-win Game 6 vs. the Astros

Valdez’s two wins against Philadelphia are part of a 23-6 run by Houston when the lefty starts, including 3-0 in the playoffs and 12-4 at home.

But these Phillies have been the poster child for resilience for more than six months. So despite Valdez’s dominance of Philadelphia — in two starts, he’s allowed one run, six hits and four walks while striking out 19 in 11 1/3 innings — we simply have no interest in fading Bryce Harper and Co. Not when their backs are slammed firmly against the wall, and not when they have their own stud on the mound in Zack Wheeler.

Thus, we think the only way to play Game 6 is Under the total.

For starters, we’ve seen a steady decline in runs in this series, with the 11-run outburst in the opener followed by scores of 5-2, 7-0, 5-0 and 3-2.

This Valdez-Wheeler clash is a rematch of that 5-2 final in Game 2, which pushed the 7-run total. It was actually a bad beat for Under bettors, because one of the five runs Wheeler allowed was courtesy of a first-inning error, while two others came on a two-out, two-run homer by Astros third baseman Alex Bregman in the bottom of the fifth.

Then in the ninth, the Phillies scored their second run on a one-out sacrifice fly that followed a two-base fielding error by Houston. Just take away the two unearned runs, and Game 2 ends 4-1.

» READ MORE: Win or you’re done? Former Cub Kyle Schwarber knows about that: ‘It’s going to take everyone’

Even with that push, the Under is still 3-1-1 in the last five World Series contests. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Valdez’s four playoff starts (final scores of 3-2, 4-2, 3-2 and 5-2) and 2-1-1 in Wheeler’s four postseason outings.

The one Over for Wheeler? A 4-3 victory in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series against the Padres when the total was 6.5. And, again, it was somewhat of a bad beat, as Philadelphia had a 2-1 lead after six innings.

Yes, the Astros ambushed Wheeler in the first inning of Game 2, scoring three times (including that one unearned run) before an out was recorded. But we expect the Phillies’ ace to be much sharper in Game 6, especially with his team’s season on the line.

We also expect Valdez to be Valdez again and the bullpens — both rested after Friday’s day off — to do their part. So play Under 7 runs at BetMGM, and look for a 2-1 or 3-2 final Saturday.

As for who ends up on the right side of that score? Your guess is as good as ours.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Moneyline: Phillies (+120) @ Astros (-145)

  2. Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-185) @ Astros -1.5 (+150)

  3. Total: 7 (Over +100/Under -120)

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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