Phillies vs. Rockies prediction: Neither starter has been great, but will the teams combine for more than 12 runs?

We have a Phillies vs. Rockies prediction as both teams enter this series opener hoping to keep their winning streaks alive.

After six straight losses, Philadelphia has won three games in a row, including a two-game sweep at home in interleague play over Toronto.

As for Colorado, it has won back-to-back games to cap off a series win on the road in Pittsburgh. The Rockies are now starting to bounce back from a dismal start to the season, which resulted in a 9-20 record through April.

However, Colorado is 7-2 in May; winning all three of its series in the month beginning with a three-game sweep over Milwaukee.

The Rockies are getting a much better performance from their pitchers, meaning we could have an opportunity to take advantage of an inflated total at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: PHI (-150) vs. COL (+125)

Spread: PHI -1.5 (+100) vs. COL +1.5 (-120)

Total: Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115)

Phillies - Taijuan Walker (3-2, 5.97 ERA) vs. Rockies - Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.75 ERA)

The numbers don’t look particularly good for either starting pitcher. However, it’s worth noting that both are coming off a quality start their last time out.

Walker allowed one run in six innings against a Red Sox offense that ranks sixth with a wRC+ value of 114. Gomber faced a Mets team that’s still in the top half of that category with 102 value, limiting them to two runs in six innings.

If you look at the advanced numbers at FanGraphs, there are signs of positive regression. Both pitchers have an xFIP at least an entire run lower than their traditional ERAs. Walker has a 4.09 xFIP, while Gomber’s is at 5.24.

And although Gomber’s xFIP remains higher, he’s allowed just three earned runs in his last three starts. His numbers are primarily skewed after a three-game stretch where he allowed 19 runs in 10 1/3 innings of work.

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Neither offense has had a great deal of success against the opposing pitchers. In 32 plate appearances, Philadelphia’s roster is hitting .207 with a .313 wOBA against Gomber.

As for the Rockies, they’re hitting .214 with a .280 wOBA against Walker in 77 plate appearances.

The weather conditions might not be optimal for hitters as our Action Labs Weather Report projects that the wind will blow in from the right field with gusts up to 11 mph.

This total opened at 12 but has now dropped to 11.5. A query for this opening total (using our Action Labs database) found that the under is 19-11-2 for 7.6 units at Coors Field when it closed with a lower number.

After missing the best of the number, I’ll add some insurance by buying this number up to 12 and playing the under at -130 odds.

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