Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.Tim Hardaway Jr. has betting value for NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award after All-Star break
As we look forward to the NBA resuming after All-Star break, here's who has betting value to win Sixth Man of the Year.
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As the NBA hits the reset button following the All-Star break, we’ve got a few days to gather our thoughts before the season resumes on Thursday.
This downtime always presents an excellent opportunity to scour the futures market in search of some value.
One market that’s still undecided is the NBA Sixth Man of the Year. Sacramento’s Malik Monk is the current favorite, with odds ranging from +100 at BetMGM to -121 at BetRivers.
Some of the earliest odds posted in this market had Monk at around +1200 in August. And while I’d readily admit that you’ve lost some value if you’re looking to back Monk at this stage of the game, I think we can make a case for another player with slightly longer odds.
Criteria for NBA Sixth Man Award
The requirements for winning the Sixth Man of the Year remain straightforward: a player must feature in more games coming off the bench than a starter.
However, when deciding on who can win the award, Maltman at the Action Network has already done much of the legwork in identifying four common characteristics a player should have before adding them to our portfolio.
Play for a team that won 47-plus games. Over the past 16 years, if a player averaged 16-plus points per game and his team won 47-plus games, he had a 62% chance of winning the award. All but one of the past 20 winners (Lou Williams in 2018) have won 47-plus games.
Average more than 14.5 points per game. Fifteen of the past 17 winners have reached this mark.
Be between 26 and 32 years of age as 70% of past winners have been.
Finish as a top-three scorer on their team (19 of past 20 winners).
This breakdown is beneficial because it helps us narrow the field, and based on my findings, this is down to a two-person race between Monk and Tim Hardaway Jr.
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Value on Hardaway at +200 (PointsBet)
There are still roughly eight weeks left in the season — just enough time for Hardaway to finish strong. It wasn’t that long ago (Feb. 1) when Hardaway was the consensus favorite at -114.
However, the Mavericks small forward has had a dip in form this month, averaging 10.6 points compared to 20.4 points for Monk.
But does that mean we should overlook Hardaway’s entire body of work for the season? He’s averaging 17.3 points per game compared to 15.1 for Monk.
The Mavericks are also a half-game ahead of the Kings in the Western Conference standings and currently tied for the longest winning streak in the league at six games.
Moreover, if you look at the remaining games for both teams, Sacramento has the eighth toughest schedule, per Tankathon.com, with opponents having a .518 win percentage compared to the Mavericks, who rank 21st (.495).
Lastly, Hardaway received votes for Sixth Man on three occasions, while Monk received only once. With Hardaway at 31 years of age and Monk at 26, his window to win the award is starting to close.
As for Monk, he’s been a bench player his entire career, so he’ll still have plenty of chances to win this award in the future.
Let’s also not forget that this award is entirely subjective, so some sentimentality could seep into voters’ minds as they cast their ballots.
As a result, I wouldn’t recommend giving up on Hardaway just yet.
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