NFL Preseason Week 1 Preview: Jets vs. Eagles odds, picks, prediction
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze highlights his value play in the preseason clash between the Jets and Eagles
The 2022 season for the Philadelphia Eagles kicks off on Friday night when they host the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field.
This is an intriguing game to handicap because the Eagles are available anywhere from a one-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog.
Both teams are expected to play their starters for one or two possessions which is why the market is probably a bit indecisive in settling on a consensus favorite.
We’ll look at the quarterback depth charts and highlight some recent trends as part of our quest to find value in this contest.
Jets vs. Eagles NFL odds
Odds provided by FanDuel
Moneyline: NYJ (-105) vs. PHI (-110)
Spread: NYJ +1 (-115) vs. PHI -1 (-110)
Total: Over 35.5 (-110) | Under 35.5 (-110)
During the preseason, you can forget about any modeling, projections, or any other strategies you might use during the regular season. Right now, it’s all about information and which teams are playing their starters vs. those playing it safe.
This matchup was a pick’em when lines were first released. The Jets were first to announce they’d play their starters, which precipitated a line move in their direction. Once the Eagles also announced their intentions, we saw the market start to balance out.
This game is a classic pick’em right down the middle as there are too many moving parts right now to definitively state which side has the edge in their first preseason game. However, one correlation we can make regarding the starters taking the field is their inclusion could lead to more of a high-scoring affair.
The total for this game opened at 33, and it’s up to 35.5.
According to our Action Labs database, in the past 18 preseason games, when the total increases by at least a half-point, the over is 13-5 for a profit of 7.05 units.
Moreover, this trend is currently on a 5-0 run.
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If we look at the team depth charts, both starting quarterbacks, Zach Wilson and Jalen Hurts, along with their backups, are familiar with their offenses after already being on their teams last season.
As a result, I don’t expect much of a drop-off when they take the field. Look for backups Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew to take advantage of facing weaker secondaries by pushing the ball down the field.
Usually, during the regular season, there’s a much more extensive wagering menu to browse through. However, betting is much more nuanced during the preseason, with fleeting lines quickly on the move.
And while you could certainly look to grab the over at 35.5, it might make more sense to utilize the total as part of a two-leg, six-point teaser at -110 odds.
Though you might need to shop around for this option, pairing the over with Jets is an enticing proposition.
After all, preseason underdogs are 546-501-32 for a profit of 23.92 units.
Note that a two-legged teaser would make the Jets a seven-point underdog while dropping the total to 29.5 points.
Jets vs. Eagles pick
Two-team six-point teaser (-110): Jets +7 / over 29.5
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