NFL predictions: Week 6 best bets

Good news: We made it through yet another Thursday Night Football clunker.

Best news: There are still 13 games on the Week 6 docket, most of which should be more exciting than Thursday’s barnburner in which the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears once again showed us what professional football looked like back in 1937.

Most notably, there’s a marquee matchup Sunday afternoon in Kansas City that ought to make up for that Commanders-Bears dud with plenty of offensive fireworks. And that’s where we begin with our quartet of NFL best bets for Week 6.

Point spread: Bills (-2.5/-118) @ Chiefs (+2.5/-104)

Moneyline: Bills (-142) @ Chiefs (+120)

Total: 53.5 points (Over -115/Under -105)

You’ve probably spent the week wondering why the Chiefs are a home underdog in this highly anticipated matchup of first-place squads (and Super Bowl betting favorites).

After all, Kansas City outlasted the Bills in January’s AFC Divisional Playoffs thriller, prevailing 42-36 in overtime as a 2.5-point home favorite. Not only that, but both squads enter this contest at 4-1; the Chiefs have put up 71 points in consecutive victories the last two weeks (including a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay); and Buffalo is playing its third road game in four weeks.

Well, here are two reasons why oddsmakers made Patrick Mahomes a home ‘dog for the first time in his career — and why we agree with that stance: Buffalo’s defense is as legit as its ranking, and unlike 10 months ago, that defense won’t have to deal with Tyreek Hill.

Hill torched the Bills for 11 catches, 150 yards and an electrifying 64-yard touchdown in last year’s playoff shootout. But the speedy wideout took his talents to South Beach via an offseason trade to the Dolphins.

Taking Hill out of the Chiefs’ offensive picture is a big advantage for a Bills defense that’s tied for first in the NFL in points allowed (12.2 per game) and ranks second in total yards (260.4 per game).

Will Buffalo completely shut down Mahomes? No chance. But neither will a middling Chiefs defense contain multi-threat Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who accounted for 397 total yards and four TDs in January. Allen put up virtually the same numbers (374 yards, four TDs) when he visited Arrowhead in the 2021 regular season and led the Bills to a 38-20 victory as a 2.5-point underdog.

Don’t expect a similar blowout victory Sunday. Still, we think Buffalo will prove the oddsmakers’ accurate and win this game by more than a field goal. Lay the 2.5 points at FanDuel.

Point spread: Cowboys (+6.5) @ Eagles (-6.5)

Moneyline: Cowboys (+235) @ Eagles (-290)

Total: 42.5 points (Over -104/Under -118)

Eagles fans have to be pleased with how consistently productive their team’s offense has been so far. Led by MVP candidate Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in every game (including 24 or more in four of five contests).

However, that offense will face by far its stiffest test of the season Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Dallas has yet to surrender 20 points in a game this season and is yielding an average of 13.3 points during its current four-game winning streak.

Then again, the Eagles’ defense has been just as stingy. Since getting popped for 35 points in the season opener at Detroit, Philadelphia’s stop unit has allowed the same 13.3 ppg the past four weeks.

Which leads us to our NFL best bet for this Sunday Night Football clash: Under the total. The Cowboys are 4-1 to the Under this season, with not a single game clearing 40 points. And since leaving Detroit, the Eagles have stayed low in three of four games (all three featured 37 combined points or less).

Also worth noting: After Thursday’s snoozefest in Chicago, the Under is now 12-5 in NFL prime-time games this season, including 4-1 on Sunday night. Expect that low-scoring trend to continue in this NFC East battle.

Point spread: 49ers (-5.5) @ Falcons (+5.5)

Moneyline: 49ers (-235) @ Falcons (+194)

Total: 44.5 points

By now you’re likely aware that the Atlanta Falcons are the NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team against the spread (5-0). But that’s not the main reason we like the home underdog here.

While San Francisco is off consecutive blowout victories over the Rams (24-9) and Panthers (37-15), coach Kyle Shanahan’s troops are in a tricky scheduling spot.

The 49ers played Los Angeles on a Monday night, then traveled to Carolina last Sunday. Rather than head back to the West Coast, the 49ers wisely spent the week prepping for the Falcons in West Virginia. Still, look at what’s next after leaving Atlanta: Chiefs (home), Rams (road), bye, Chargers (home).

Translation: This smells like a flat spot for San Francisco, which lost its first two road games of the season at Chicago and Denver (producing just 10 points in each).

The Falcons have been in every game this season, winning two (by a combined seven points) and losing three (by a combined 11 points). In fact, Atlanta’s first four contests prior to last week’s 21-15 loss in Tampa Bay were decided by four points or fewer.

Look for the Falcons to play another nail-biter Sunday and remain perfect against the spread for one more week.

Point spread: Jets (+7.5/-115) @ Packers (-7.5/-105)

Moneyline: Jets (+290) @ Packers (-375)

Total: 45.5 points (Over -104/Under -118)

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers injured his thumb on the final play of last week’s stunning 27-20 loss to the Giants in London. Despite missing a day of practice, though, Rodgers is expected to start when the Jets fly into Lambeau Field.

Healthy or not, it’s been an uneven start to the 2022-23 campaign for Rodgers and the Packers, who are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Conversely, the Jets have won and covered three of their last four. All of which means that there’s solid value in this game on … Green Bay.

Think about it: Had the Packers taken care of business in London, this line would be pushing (if not already exceeding) double digits.

Besides line value, Green Bay has been money in bounce-back situations under coach Matt LaFleur, going 9-0 SU and ATS after a loss. Eight of those were double-digit victories, including a 27-10 rout of the Bears in Week 2 after a 23-7 season-opening loss in Minnesota.

New York has been better than expected, but both of its losses were by double digits (24-9 vs. the Ravens, 27-12 vs. the Bengals). And the three wins weren’t all that impressive (the Dolphins didn’t have Tua Tagovailoa; the Steelers are trash; and the Browns blew a 13-point lead with two minutes to play).

This is an ideal spot to play the Packers — and a reasonable price.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.