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NFL Preview: How to bet the Miami Dolphins’ win total

The Action Network’s Michael Arinze shares why he thinks sportsbooks are undervaluing the Dolphins this season.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins waves to fans as he leaves the field after the 33-24 win over the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins waves to fans as he leaves the field after the 33-24 win over the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)Read moreMichael Reaves / Getty Images

There’s no disputing that the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the AFC East. The battle for second place remains up for grabs between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.

Miami finished last season with nine victories, one fewer than New England.

Yet, even after an impressive offseason that included landing four-time All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins’ win total is still sitting at 8.5.

I’ll share my reasoning on why their win total is not only undervalued but also one of my favorite futures heading into the regular season.

Odds provided by FanDuel.

Dolphins Over 8.5 Wins (-135)

I’m all in on the Dolphins, particularly when I start to think of the similarities new head coach Mike McDaniel will encounter between this team and his former club, the San Francisco 49ers.

As a coordinator, McDaniel oversaw an offense that included dynamic wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who could line up at any position.

The 49ers often had to find creative ways to get the ball to their star wide receiver, primarily due to the limitations of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo isn’t known for having a strong arm, which is often the criticism against current Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Yet, despite those limitations, the 49ers fell just three points short of going to the Super Bowl.

If anyone knows how to get the best out of Tagovailoa, it should be McDaniel.

I’d look for McDaniel to utilize Hill similarly to Samuel. As a player on the Chiefs, Hill often lined up in the backfield, sometimes as a decoy.

Hill is also the type of receiver that can come short on his routes while maintaining his explosiveness because of his ability to run after the catch.

Miami won at least nine games in the past two seasons, with Tagovailoa playing significant minutes in each campaign.

I don’t see the Dolphins taking a step back after landing an offensive head coach and acquiring one of the most indefensible wide receivers in the game today.

While Hill is undoubtedly the big attraction, the Dolphins also added free agent wide receiver Cedrick Wilson (73.8 PFF grade). The left side of the offensive line should get a boost with guard Connor Williams (76.1 PFF grade) and tackle Terron Armstead (75.9 PFF grade) anchoring the left side.

Defensively, the Dolphins are headed in the right direction after finishing 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. After signing a three-year extension, cornerback Xavien Howard (70.9 PFF grade) remains under control for the foreseeable future.

Up front, the Dolphins strengthened their pass rush by signing DE Melvin Ingram (79.7 PFF grade). Miami also made an under-the-radar signing by bringing in Teddy Bridgewater (73.5 PFF grade) to back up Tagovailoa.

Lastly, the running back room should have plenty of competition with the additions of Chase Edmonds (67.9 PFF grade), Sony Michel (66.1 PFF grade), and former 49er Raheem Mostert (58.0 PFF grade).

The more you look at this Dolphins team, the more apparent it is that this team is being constructed almost to mirror the 49ers. There’s a clear plan and direction that McDaniel’s putting forth, which makes me exceptionally bullish to play them over their win total of 8.5 games.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.