NFL odds, predictions: 2 best bets for MVP in 2022-23

The NFL pre-season is in full swing, but bettors still have ample time to get futures bets in for the regular season.

Today, our focus will be on the preeminent award in the NFL - Most Valuable Player. Historically, quarterbacks have dominated this market, winning nine straight MVP awards. Included in that trend are two straight wins by Green Bay Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers, who sits at +1000 to claim his third consecutive MVP honor.

Currently, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+700) is the favorite to win this year’s honor while Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, both former winners, both sit at +800. Along with Rodgers at 10/1, Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+900) round out the top-five choices on the odds board.

But where should bettors focus in this market? Without further hesitation, here are my two best bets for this year’s MVP award. Odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Although the odds are shorter than I’d like, I believe Herbert is primed for a breakout campaign on a Chargers team I expect to improve.

Just last season, the Oregon product ranked sixth amongst all quarterbacks in total Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and second amongst all quarterbacks in effective passing yards, per footballoutsiders.com. Both of those rankings represent improvements season-over-season as Herbert was 11th and seventh, respectively, in those categories for the 2020 campaign.

Furthermore, head coach Brandon Staley appears to have established a preference for passing in his offense. Last season, Los Angeles ranked fourth in passing DVOA against 14th in rushing DVOA. In 2020, they ranked seventh and 31st, respectively, in those categories. Those trends should allow plenty of opportunities for Herbert, who threw for the third-most touchdown’s in the league last year, to pad his stats and earn the respect of voters.

Lastly, although some prospective bettors may be (justifiably) concerned about the fact Herbert plays in (arguably) the toughest division league-wide, I’m choosing to take a glass-half-full approach. If Herbert can lead the Chargers to a division win or a deep play-off run, it’s my belief he’ll garner further respect.

For those reasons, back Herbert at +900 or better for a MVP victory.

A LOT has to go right for Samuel to win this award, but I give him a better chance than his odds suggest.

The San Francisco 49ers have moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo and running-back Raheem Mostert, leaving Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell as their replacements. Although Lance should be a fine quarterback, I believe he’s way overvalued in the MVP market at +4000. Plus, Samuel and George Kittle are basically the stars of San Francisco’s offense now and should expect a lion’s share of targets from Lance.

But given a tight end has never won MVP, that brings me to Samuel, who serves as a hybrid halfback/receiver in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Last season, Samuel ranked 13th amongst receivers with at least 50 receptions in defense-adjusted yards above replacement, again per footballoutsiders.com. The South Carolina product simultaneously ranked first amongst wide receivers with at least five rushes in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), but had 41 more rushes than the next closest player in attempts.

It’s my expectation that the aforementioned departures of those skill players will see Samuel’s opportunities increase. Last season, he combined for 181 passes + rushes. For context, the 2020 season saw Samuel earn only 52 combined passes + rushes.

So, although it’s sizably more likely than not that Samuel doesn’t win this award, the ceiling is high enough that at 150/1, I’m willing to take a flier.

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