Week 9 NFL betting trends: Unbeaten Eagles also among most profitable teams

It hasn’t been a whole lot of fun going up against the Philadelphia Eagles this season. And barring the biggest upset of the 2022-23 season, the Houston Texans will be the latest opponent to experience that reality as they host the undefeated Eagles on Thursday Night Football.

But there’s one opponent in particular that hasn’t much enjoyed butting heads with Philadelphia this season: NFL oddsmakers.

Not only do the Eagles enter Week 9 as the league’s only unbeaten squad, but they also sport one of the best point-spread records — a record that is this close to also being perfect.

Let’s dig deeper into Philly’s sensational season from a point-spread perspective — and delve into several team- and league-specific wagering tendencies — in our Week 9 NFL betting trends report.

Six points. If the Eagles had just scored six more (or allowed six fewer) total points against the Lions in Week 1 and Cardinals in Week 5, they would have a 7-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record to pair with their 7-0 straight-up (SU) mark. Philadelphia won each of those contests in Detroit and Arizona by three points as a 5.5-point favorite.

Still, the Eagles’ 5-2 ATS mark is tied with Tennessee for second best in the NFL, just a half-game behind a trio of squads at 6-2 ATS: the Falcons — who opened the season with six consecutive covers before failing to cash in the last two — and NFC rivals the Giants and Cowboys.

If Philadelphia covers a hefty 14-point spread against the Texans on Thursday night, it will pull into a first-place tie atop the ATS standings heading into Sunday’s action. With the Cowboys and Giants on bye, only Atlanta (which is a home underdog against the Chargers) can get to 7-2 ATS this week.

Bettors laying the big points on Thursday will be happy to know that after Sunday’s 22-point blowout of the Steelers as an 11.5-point home favorite, the Eagles are now 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2014.

Then again, only three of Philadelphia’s seven wins have been double-digit blowouts. Also, teams laying 10-plus points this season are 9-1 on the scoreboard but a dead-even 5-5 at the betting window.

The only squad that’s been favored on the road by more than 9 points? That would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who in consecutive weeks lost outright at Pittsburgh (as a 9.5-point chalk) and Carolina (as a 13-point favorite).

One final trend that should make Eagles bettors wary Thursday night: While the Texans are 1-5-1 this season, only one of their defeats was by more than 10 points (38-20 at Las Vegas).

It’s likely that many NFL bettors are feeling a bit down this week but can’t quite figure out why. We think we know the reason: As noted above, the Dallas Cowboys are idle.

Dallas belted the Bears 49-29 as a 9.5-point home favorite in Week 8. With that, the NFL’s moneymaking machine moved to 19-6 ATS in its last 25 regular-season games — a sizzling 76% cover rate.

Since flatlining at home against Tampa Bay in Week 1 (19-3 loss), the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS. The lone non-cover: a 26-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 7-point underdog in Week 6.

Other teams on a spread-covering roll right now: the Titans (5-0 ATS), Bengals (5-1 ATS), Commanders (3-0 ATS) and Seahawks (3-0 ATS).

Each of those squads is in action Sunday. Washington is a 3.5-point home underdog against Minnesota; Cincinnati, which is coming off Monday’s upset loss at Cleveland, is a 7.5-point home favorite against Carolina; Seattle is a 2-point road underdog at Arizona; and Tennessee is a whopping 12.5-point pup at Kansas City.

That latter game is the Week 9 Sunday night battle and comes with a slew of noteworthy trends. First, the Chiefs are coming out of their bye week. Going back to 1999, Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 20-3 SU following an off week (7-2 since joining the Chiefs in 2013).

On the flip side, Reid is 2-9 SU all time against the Titans. Also, the Chiefs have yet to cover a point spread at home this season (0-3), while Tennessee has cashed in three straight road contests.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

With every rise, there shall be a fall. And once again, the team spiraling downward this week is the one whose quarterback is widely considered the GOAT.

Yep, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers laid another egg in Week 8, blowing a 10-3 halftime lead to the Baltimore Ravens and losing 27-22 as a 2-point home favorite. Tampa Bay has now lost three straight games and five of six, going 0-6 ATS along the way.

Two other teams icing bettors these days: Jacksonville and Detroit, which are mired in ATS funks of 0-5 and 0-4, respectively.

While the Jaguars (+1.5 vs. Raiders) and Lions (+3.5 vs. Packers) are home underdogs in Week 8, Tampa Bay once again is giving points, this time as a 3-point home chalk against the Rams. Los Angeles also has been a money burner this season (2-5 ATS). However, like the Chiefs, the Bucs have yet to cover at home (0-4 ATS).

Sticking with the negative theme, it might surprise you to learn that eight teams that currently have sub-.500 SU records — Indianapolis, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Denver, Carolina, Atlanta, Detroit and Pittsburgh — have collectively been favored in 21 games this season.

This, however, probably will not surprise you: Those eight clubs are a combined 2-19 ATS in those 21 contests.

Alas, none are favored in Week 9.

Nearly halfway through the 2022-23 regular season, NFL favorites continue to deliver on the field, going 74-48-1 SU. At the betting counter, though, it’s a different story. Underdogs are 67-53-3 ATS, which pencils out to 55.8% (not counting ties).

Similar numbers can be found in the league’s marquee matchups: Favorites are 17-8 SU in prime-time games, but underdogs are 14-11 ATS.

On the Over/Under front, the last two weeks have been a total — pardon the pun — wash: 14 Overs, 14 Unders, 1 push. Still, Unders are cashing at a near 58% clip for the season (70-51-2). That includes a 15-9-1 Under mark in prime-time affairs.

Despite those very strong low-scoring trends — and despite the fact that more than 55% of the NFL’s 123 games have finished with 43 or fewer combined points — nine of 13 contests on the Week 8 schedule have totals of 45.5 points or higher.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.