Back a high scoring game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets in Game 3 matchup

The Minnesota Timberwolves take a 2-0 series lead back to Minneapolis after two impressive wins in Denver.

Just like we all expected, right?

Minnesota is showing the NBA world that it is not to be underestimated and the Nuggets have learned that lesson the hard way. With what looks to be the best defense since the 2004 Pistons, the Timberwolves have been the story of the playoffs so far.

Does the series shift Friday night in Minneapolis? Let’s take a close look at the matchup and make a prediction.

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The defending champs have their backs against the wall and oddsmakers don’t expect them to win Game 3. While I generally agree with the sports markets on the spread, the total is much more juicy.

Minnesota’s outstanding defense has flustered Denver through two games, but the 204.5 total is too low to lean on the under.

Game 3 can still go over even if the Timberwolves have another great defensive performance. In Game 1 when Minnesota held the Nuggets to 99 points, the game still ended with a higher total score (205) than Friday night’s total.

Minnesota’s Game 2 defensive masterclass is still fresh in everyone’s mind, and deservedly so. It looked as if the Timberwolves had seven players on the floor as defenders swarmed to the ball and made every shot difficult.

But you also can’t expect them to hold Denver to 35 points in the first half again.

For one, the Nuggets have dealt with Minnesota’s defense for two games now, so they should  be acclimated to the Timberwolves’ speed, tenacity, effort and defensive strategy.

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Does that mean Denver is going to slice up Minnesota and score at will? Of course not. This is simply a prediction that the Nuggets won’t look like a dumpster fire on offense again. Maybe they’ll just be solidly below average in Game 3, but a 35-point effort at halftime is extreme offensive ineptitude that seems impossible to replicate.

Secondly, Nikola Jokic (16 points, 5-of-13 shooting) and Jamal Murray (8 points, 3-of-18) won’t be as bad as they were in Game 2. They should be much more productive, especially Jokic, who had 32 points in Game 1 and averaged 33.3 points per game against the Timberwolves during the regular season.

Lastly, Minnesota is capable of a higher scoring output than the first two games. Even if it holds Denver under triple digits again, the over can still hit if the Timberwolves get to around 110 points.

Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are proven scorers, and five other Minnesota players are averaging at least 10 points per game this postseason. Plus, the Timberwolves were third in 3-point percentage in the regular season, so there’s always the chance they get hot from deep.

This total is too low for the amount of talented scorers on the floor, even factoring in Minnesota’s stifling defense.

There are just so many avenues for this game to finish with 205-plus total points.

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