Back Stars to win Game 2 against Oilers of Western Conference Finals

Despite needing double overtime to finally claim victory, the Edmonton Oilers made a statement with their Game 1 victory in the Western Conference Final.

Even while trailing for the majority of regulation, the Dallas Stars generated just 24 shots on goal, and the game-tying score late in the third period came on a fluky bounce.

While the Oilers deserve full credit for the win, it also seemed clear the Stars came out lusterless, and the postgame remarks from Dallas’ players echoed that sentiment.

The Stars should be trusted to make adjustments and bring a more urgent effort in Saturday’s critical Game 2. After all, they lost Game 1 to both the Golden Knights and Avalanche in this postseason and have dropped seven straight series openers in the playoffs.

This is a good time to step back and consider the dominant fashion in which the Stars arrived at this point.

Odds via FanDuel

Dallas has displayed excellent play in all facets of the game over the last two series, which came against full-blown cup contenders in Vegas and Colorado. Even after Game 1, the Stars 58.45% expected goal share ranks first among all 16 playoff teams.

Historically, teams coming off a Game 7 victory perform well versus a rested opponent. Since 2005, teams entering off of a Game 7 playing against an opponent that has rested for three or more days are now 22-17 after the Oilers’ Game 1 victory.

The causation to that trend seems clear enough – it’s difficult for the rested team to match the urgency of a side that enters the game fresh off a do-or-die.

The Stars were widely expected to own the depth matchups in this series and lean upon their elite top two defensive pairings to limit the damage done by the Oilers’ superstars. That wasn’t the case in Game 1.

The Stars didn’t generate nearly as many chances in minutes against Edmonton’s weak bottom units, and their shutdown defensive pairing was exposed by the Oilers’ top combinations. That doesn’t mean that’s how every game will go in this series though.

The Stars’ incredible shutdown pairing of Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell struggled to a minus-3 rating in Game 1. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are a different animal, but that unit fared exceptionally well versus Nathan MacKinnon’s and Jack Eichel’s lines in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

The Oilers’ bottom lines hung in better than expected in Game 1, but they still didn’t make a difference on the scoreboard. If Tanev, Lindell and the rest of the Stars can keep Edmonton’s stars in check in Game 2, it should lead to a far better result.

There is also a chance Dallas will get a significant boost for this matchup, as there’s a possibility top center Roope Hintz will return to the lineup.

The Stars have proven highly capable of responding to tough losses, and their overall body of work suggests we shouldn’t overrate how Game 1 went. At -135 there is value backing the Stars on Saturday.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.