Penn State vs Ohio State preview: History says value Nittany Lions as double-digit underdog

After easily covering the five-point spread in the ‘White Out’ against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a 45-17 blowout win, No. 13 Penn State will host another Big Ten foe, this time No. 2 Ohio State in a game that could alter each team’s season.

The Buckeyes, fresh off of their 54-10 rout of Iowa, enter the game as one of six remaining unbeaten teams, possessing Heisman front runner and potential top NFL Draft pick C.J. Stroud and future stars in running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

As no surprise, the Nittany Lions enter this game as more than two-touchdown home underdogs, with the line sitting at 15.5 points in favor of the Buckeyes at BetMGM. But don’t be fooled by this line; history says this game is always closer than what Vegas suggests.

In the James Franklin era at Penn State, the Nittany Lions have beaten the Buckeyes just once in eight tries, the infamous blocked field goal game in which Grant Haley scored and put Penn State ahead for good in 2016.

Despite the 1-7 record against the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions are extremely profitable for bettors in this matchup. Penn State has covered in five of the last six games against Ohio State, with Franklin and crew being an astonishing 5-2 against the spread since 2014, according to OddsShark.

The last time these two teams met was during the COVID-ridden 2020 season, when the Nittany Lions were just 10-point underdogs and lost to Ohio State by 13 points. It was the first time under Franklin that Penn State didn’t cover the spread against Ohio State at Beaver Stadium.

Despite three losses in Happy Valley under Franklin against the Buckeyes, the average margin of defeat sits at a touchdown per game. Penn State is one of the few teams within the Big Ten that can match talent for talent at nearly every position on the field, which makes this matchup that more interesting.

» READ MORE: Boos be damned, Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford is leaving his ‘heart and soul’ on the field

Another trend in this game to note: three of the last four games between these two teams have hit the under in point-totals, that extends to five of the last eight matchups since 2014. This season, the total is set at 61 points, a generous number considering these games are typically low-scoring.

The worry for Penn State in this game, though, is if Sean Clifford, Nick Singleton and others can score enough points to keep pace with one of the top offenses in college football. Stroud didn’t have the best game last season against the Nittany Lions, but did enough to pull away.

If the Nittany Lions can pressure Stroud and the running game comes alive, Penn State can force the Buckeyes into a game they don’t want to play. And that can make this game a low-scoring slugfest that once again comes down to the fourth quarter, which seems to happen almost every year in this matchup.

Take Penn State to cover the 15.5-point spread if you put any plays on the game.

Betting Line: Penn State +15.5; O/U: 61

OSU: -700

PSU: +500

*Penn State is 4-3 against the spread this season, while Ohio State is 4-2-1 ATS.

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