Phillies vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Can Gibson stymie Toronto?

Losers of four in a row, the Philadelphia Phillies need a win in the worst way on Tuesday. According to oddsmakers, they’ve got roughly a 50% chance of getting one against the surging Toronto Blue Jays.

Both Toronto and Philadelphia are in the thick of the Wild Card race, but while the Jays are trending in the right direction, the Phillies are now in danger of being caught by the Milwaukee Brewers. Thus, it’s no surprise to see bookmakers install Toronto as a slight -118 favorite even if the game is being played at Citizens Bank Park.

Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber for the Phillies, looking to build on an impressive start against the Marlins his last time out. In that start, Gibson allowed one run on six hits and issued no walks while striking out seven across six innings. The impressive outing moved the veteran right-hander’s ERA to 4.45.

And while a 4.45 ERA is nothing to write home about, Gibson’s underlying metrics do suggest that he’s been a little bit unlucky. The 34-year-old owns a 4.32 xERA and 4.01 xFIP through 151.2 innings of work this season, which is basically right inline with Gibson’s career numbers. Gibson’s StatCast profile is also right around league average, which is where he’s ended up the past few seasons.

» READ MORE: Even after four straight losses, Phillies still likely to make playoffs

Gibson’s opponent, Ross Stripling, has been a picture of consistency since returning from injury on Aug. 17. Stripling has made six starts in that span and has logged a quality start in each appearance. Stripling boasts a 2.45 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 25.4 K% and .167 batting average against in that span (36.2 innings).

On the surface, those numbers look impressive — and they are — but they also are a bit inflated. Stripling’s BABIP during his recent purple patch is .185, which is well below the MLB average of roughly .289, and his 3.43 xFIP sits nearly a full run higher than his ERA since Aug. 17. That’s the case with Stripling’s full-season numbers, too. In 119.1 innings of work, Stripling’s BABIP sits at .258, while his 3.62 xFIP outpaces his 2.94 ERA. Nothing on Stripling’s StatCast profile really leaps off the page, either, though the 32-year-old is elite at preventing walks.

While the margins are thin in this matchup, it does set up as a good sell-high spot on a pitcher that should have some negative regression coming his way.

» READ MORE: With a healthy Zack Wheeler and Seranthony Domínguez, Phillies would be in better shape than in 2007

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