With Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, back the Phillies as favorites over the Pirates on Friday

The baseball season is still in its infancy, but the Pirates are a bit of an early surprise as they’ve raced out to a 9-4 mark in the NL Central.

Meanwhile, the 7-6 Phillies – despite hovering around .500 – have started a bit slower than they had anticipated.

However, Philadelphia hosts the Pirates on Friday night in the second game of a 10-game homestand that could pave the way for the Phillies to start a hot streak.

Let’s take a look at the matchup and make a pick.

Cristopher Sanchez, who has pitched to a 4.82 ERA with nine strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings, is slated to start for the Phillies and has pitched better than those results might indicate.

The 27-year-old lefty has pitched to a 3.96 xERA and ranks in the 65th percentile when it comes to ground-ball rate, a key metric when pitching in Citizens Bank Park.

Yes, Sanchez has been hit hard at times this season (28th percentile), but the Pirates are a middle-of-the-pack offense (13th) when it comes to hard-hit percentage.

Additionally, the Pirates are hitting .270, but their xBA is .262, meaning some regression – albeit slight – is coming.

It’s doubtful Sanchez will completely shut down the Pirates. However, the metrics indicate that he’s due for some better results and that Pittsburgh will slow down a bit.

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Also, the Phillies should be able to hit Bailey Falter, who gave up six runs over four innings against the Marlins but then shut down the Orioles (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R) in his most recent outing.

That’s certainly a great outing to build upon, but Falter also has just three strikeouts over his first 10 innings (third percentile in strikeout rate, 22nd percentile in whiff rate) this season.He’s done well to limit hard contact thus far, but when pitchers continually let hitters put the ball in play, they eventually get burned.Philadelphia’s offense has struggled out of the gate, ranking in the bottom 7% of the league in barrel rate and in the bottom 10% in xSLG, but this team is too talented to hit that poorly for long.

Let’s look at both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwaber for a quick second. Harper is hitting .214 but has an XBA of .247, while Schwarber is hitting .208 with a .258 xBA.

The resumes of those two hitters – in addition to the metrics – suggest they’ll start mashing at some point this season.

The Phillies’ lengthy home stand could be a launch point for both Harper and Schwaber, as well as the entire team.

Bet the Philadelphia mone yline on Friday night.

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