NFL Week 1 Rams vs. Bills player props: Bet high on Davis, Robinson in new roles
Bills receiver Gabriel Davis and Rams wideout Allen Robinson are both solid bets for a strong 2022 debut in new roles.
The NFL season kicks off tonight when the Bills (-2.5) take on the defending champion Rams, and there’s already been a flurry of betting activity on the season debut. That includes in the player props market.
There’s some value to mine on each side, too, with fresh faces and young upstarts assuming bigger roles in 2022. Here are three of our favorite player props at BetMGM ahead of Thursday’s showdown.
Gabe Davis longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110)
This prop has already jumped up two yards in the last 24 hours alone, but I still love the over here on the Bills’ speedy receiver, who is stepping into the clear No. 2 role for this explosive offense.
Davis was already a solid bet to hit this mark after leading Buffalo in receptions of 20-plus yards (13) in 2021 despite playing in 55% or fewer of his team’s snaps in 12 of 16 games. Still, he was ultra-efficient in that role, leading the NFL in percentage of catches that netted at least 20 yards (37.1%). That earned him a bump in playing time near the end of the year and he ran with it, earning a career-high 14 targets in the regular-season finale before his epic 201-yard, four-score performance in his final postseason game.
He won’t have to worry about snap share as the bonafide second option for MVP favorite Josh Allen, who ranked in the top five in attempts (77) and completions (32) of 20-plus yards in 2021. Get ready for another Davis breakout on the national stage.
Allen Robinson over 5.5 receptions (+110)
Much like the prop above, bettors have shown a preference for the over in the last 24 hours — even with Robinson logging six or more catches just once last season. We love the over here, too, with Robinson entering easily the best situation of his career.
The former Bears star caught six or more passes in 21 of 32 games entering last season, but the inept play of rookie Justin Fields led to a sharp decrease in his catch rate (57.6%) and overall targets (66). Neither will be a problem with Pro Bowl passer Matthew Stafford, who lost Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. this summer and will be without Van Jefferson on Thursday.
That’s a combined 122 catches across a full season — or roughly 7.2 per game — up for grabs for Los Angeles’ new wideout, who opened last season with six catches before Chicago’s offense fell apart. I’d expect to see a similar showing from Robinson, if not better, in his Rams debut.
» READ MORE: Are the Bills on upset alert?
Devin Singletary under 12.5 rushing attempts (-140)
It feels like the Bills have been trying to replace Singletary ever since they drafted him in 2019. They sprung for Zack Moss in the 2020 draft and spent a second-round pick this spring on dynamic rusher James Cook, who is an ideal fit next to Josh Allen as a pass-catching savant.
Cook has turned heads in training camp and could cut a sizable share out of Singletary’s traditional usage, which was already suspect to begin with. Yes, the 5-foot-7 rusher saw a spike in workload late in the year amid a string of blowouts, but he still logged 12 or fewer carries in 11 of 17 games (64.7%) and averaged just 6.5 carries in games that weren’t double-digit wins.
With this game priced as a close contest, that doesn’t leave much room for Singletary to churn carries as a traditional rusher, especially with Cook nipping at his heels as a more explosive back. I’d be fading Singletary stock this season, starting with Thursday’s opener.
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