Bet on low scoring Game 3 between the Rangers and Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals

The NHL’s Eastern Conference finals between the Panthers and Rangers will shift to Sunrise, Fla., after two closely contested games in New York.

In earning a split in the opening two games, Florida helped its chances of winning the series per consensus odds. The Panthers are now priced at -180 to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, compared to their pre-series price of -150.

It was plain to see that Game 1 was a far more competitive matchup than the 3-0 final suggested, while Game 2 was a pure coin-flip that went in the Rangers’ favor. Not only is the series tied at a game apiece, but the stats from the first two games are very even.

Both sides have exactly 52 shots on goal through the opening two matchups, and per NaturalStatTrick, high-danger chances in the series are also even at 23 apiece.

What does that mean for Game 3 on Sunday? Let’s take a look.

Odds via FanDuel

The Rangers’ dominant power play was a reason to believe they could get past a well-rounded Panthers side, but Florida’s penalty kill has done an exceptional job so far in keeping New York’s power play off of the board. That explains why there have been a combined total of just five goals in the opening six periods of regulation.

The Rangers’ power-play unit could help them win it all, but Vezina-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin will have a bigger role in any championship. When needed, Shesterkin has been brilliant this postseason, holding a +9.8 goals saved-above-expected (GSAx) rating and .926 save percentage in 12 games played.

New York has not been as entirely reliant on Shesterkin stealing games this postseason as in years past, however. The Rangers have done a particularly strong job defensively, allowing just 2.61 xGA/60 through the opening two matchups of this series.

While perhaps it’s a little surprising to see the Rangers defending as well as they have at even strength, it’s not surprising to see coach Paul Maurice’s Panthers suppressing quality chances by the Rangers.

The Panthers have a strong reputation of being a physical side with strong attention to detail in the defensive areas of the game. They allowed just 2.82 xGA/60 in the regular season, and have reduced that mark to 2.79 in the playoffs.

When Florida went to the Cup Final last season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s incredible +16.3 GSAx was the main reason. Bobrovsky has been less of a story so far this postseason because his much-improved team hasn’t needed him to steal wins.

When needed, Bobrovsky has still been quite sharp though, holding a +6.3 GSAx and .912 save percentage in his team’s 13 playoff games.

Generating speed through the neutral zone has been challenging for both sides in the opening two games of this matchup. Offensive zone time has been kept mainly to the outside, and creating un-pressured shots between the faceoff dots has proven difficult.

There have been few lapses in coverage, and when they happen, both goaltenders have risen to the challenge.

It seems foolish to expect a wildly different score line in Game 3, and I believe there is value betting on another low-scoring matchup. Bet the under at anything better than -140.

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