Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.English Premier League odds, predictions: Our two best bets for Saturday
Nick Hennion of The Action Network shares his best bets for Saturday's English Premier League slate.
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On the heels of a midweek slate, the English Premier League returns this weekend for its sixth matchday of the young season.
Saturday alone features a number of high-quality fixtures and is headlined by the Mersyside Derby between Liverpool and Everton. Elsewhere, title favorites Manchester City make a trip to the Midlands to battle Aston Villa while fellow Big Sixers Chelsea and Tottenham host West Ham United and Fulham, respectively.
But, where should soccer bettors look on Saturday’s slate for their plays? Without further delay, here are my two best bets for Saturday’s action. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.
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Best bet #1 - Brentford team total over 1.5 goals (-110) vs. Leeds United
The Bees rescued a late point in the midweek against Crystal Palace and now return home to face a Leeds United side that should struggle defensively.
Last season, Brentford proved far and away a superior home side, gathering a +6.8 expected goal differential in its 19 fixtures. Although manager Thomas Frank’s defense has led the charge in consistently earning those results, it’s attack has simultaneously generated a number of scoring chances. Over its last 14 home fixtures against non-Big Six opponents, Brentford has created an average of 1.53 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
For Jesse Marsch’s Leeds side, it has struggled to establish defensive consistency away from home. Since appointing Marsch, the Peacocks have allowed 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes in its last eight road fixtures. Just this season, Leeds has failed to keep either of its two road opponents under one expected goal and has allowed two big scoring chances per 90 minutes.
Plus, both of these squads arrive at this fixture regression candidates in opposite directions. For Brentford, it has scored 10 goals on 15 big scoring chances this season, suggesting positive regression could come offensively. As for Leeds, it has conceded only five goals on eight big scoring chances, making it a negative regression candidate defensively.
Add in that Leeds struggles with set piece defense and I expect Brentford, which ranked first last season in xG off set pieces and currently ranks second this season in the same category, to have an abundance of chances.
Best bet #2 - Wolves/Southampton both teams to score - “Yes” (-130)
Historically, this head-to-head has proven quite profitable when it comes to this specific prop.
Just in the last five matches between these clubs, the “yes” side of both teams to score has cashed four times. Across the last eight head-to-head encounters, the “yes” side of BTTS has hit in six contests. Plus, each side has generated at least one expected goal in three of the last four meetings.
Believe it or not, both of these clubs arrive at their Matchday Six fixture positive offensive regression candidates. So far this season, manager Bruno Lage’s Wolves side has scored only two goals....but on five expected and seven big scoring chances. On the flip-side, Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side has created nine big scoring chances, but has scored only seven goals.
That said, the Wolves defense has simultaneously come up very lucky. Over its first five matches, the Wolves backline has conceded only four times against seven big scoring chances.
Given Southampton has yet to keep a clean sheet this season, expect the Wolves attack to do no worse than to get on the scoreboard at home. But, this is also a Wolves side that sits 12th in attacking penalty area touches against and is going up against a Saints attack which sits sixth league-wide in the corresponding offensive category.
The prop is juicy, but I’ll back this market up to -135.
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