English Premier League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Tuesday matches

After a full 10-game schedule over the weekend, the English Premier League returns in the midweek for another set of fixture.

The first day of fixtures on Tuesday promises pivotal fixtures between mid-table sides chasing higher positioning in the table. Headlining the slate is Chelsea’s visit to Southampton, but Crystal Palace-Brentford, Fulham-Brighton and Leeds-Everton also fill out the card.

However, which fixtures should bettors focus on for Tuesday’s betting opportunities? Without further delay, here are my two best bets for these four fixtures. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Both of these head-to-head meetings ended 0-0 last season, so naturally I’m targeting a goal-scoring prop bet.

Through its first four Premier League fixtures, manager Patrick Viera’s offense has looked incredibly potent. Currently, only two teams, Manchester City and Liverpool, have generated more big scoring chances than Crystal Palace, which has averaged three big chances/game in its first four matches. Perhaps most surprisingly, the Eagles have underperformed on that metric, scoring only six goals on 12 big chances.

Just at Selhurst Park, Palace has managed three goals on 3.9 expected and a whopping seven big chances, per fotmob.com. That comes a season after generating 1.45 expected goals per 90 minutes at home and getting on the scoreboard first in 11 of 15 home fixtures that saw at least one goal. Just in seven home matches against bottom-half sides at home that saw at least one goal, Viera’s side notched the first tally in six.

On the flip-side, Brentford struggled to get on the board first when playing away from home last season. In its 18 road matches that saw at least one goal, manager Thomas Frank’s side conceded first in 13. Plus, just this season, the Bees have conceded the opening goal in three of four fixtures and in both of its road matches.

Although it’s a high price to lay against a plus-money moneyline, I believe this is a more creative way to get involved with Palace. Back this prop up to -145.

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This match sets up really well for an over goal prop largely because you have a favorite due for positive regression and an underdog that’s a negative regression candidate.

Through its opening four fixtures, Leeds United has posted nine big scoring chances, a majority of which have come at Elland Road. However, on those nine big chances, the Peacocks have scored only seven goals. Although it has ever-so-slightly outperformed its expected goals tally (6.8), manager Jesse Marsch’s side has performed accordingly with its home big chances tally.

As for Everton, it has come up fairly fortunate in the defensive department to date. While I’m certainly prepared to acknowledge the quality transfer additions it has made in defense, the fact remains the Toffees have conceded only five goals against nine big scoring chances in its first four fixtures. Just on the road, manager Frank Lampard’s side has conceded only three goals on six big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Beyond that, Leeds played a number of high-event games last season against good pressure sides. In 10 matches against top-half pressure rate sides that weren’t also a Big Six club, seven cleared this benchmark including both games against Everton. In those fixtures, the Peacocks allowed 1.71 expected goals per 90 minutes and only kept one side under one expected goal, per fbref.com.

Combine that trend with Leeds’s offense prowess this season — at least 1.4 expected goals in three straight matches — and I’ll back this market up to -130.

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