English Premier League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Wednesday’s Slate

As the English Premier League’s midweek slate rolls on, bettors can begin to focus on Wednesday’s slate.

Comprised of five matches — four of which feature a traditional “Big Six” power — tomorrow’s slate will have wide-ranging implications at both the top and bottom of the table. Arsenal can keep its spot as league-leaders with a win over Aston Villa while title favorites Manchester City host Nottingham Forest as it attempts to reclaim the top spot.

But where should bettors focus their attention on tomorrow’s slate? Without further delay, allow me to present my best bets for tomorrow’s action. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

The Magpies arrive in Merseyside battered, (un)beaten and with an atrocious historical record against the Premier League’s top sides.

Although manager Eddie Howe’s side is currently 1-3-0 (W-D-L) in this young season, he’ll likely be without Bruno Guimaraes, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson for the trip to Anfield. Additionally, both Emil Krafth and Jonjo Shelvey will also be missing, leaving Howe without a number of key pieces throughout the park.

Plus, Newcastle posted horrific underlying metrics last season in road fixtures against the Big Six. They finished the season 0-0-6 (W-D-L) and conceded 2.25 expected goals per 90 minutes in those matches. In attack, it only managed 0.48 expected goals per 90 minutes in those six encounters and lost by multiple goals in five of those six matches.

Just in its two head-to-head meetings with Liverpool, Newcastle was far and away the inferior side. Across both meetings, the Magpies posted a -3 goal differential while conceding four total goals. However, that came on 5.36 expected goals and seven big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Finally, the one thing we know about Newcastle is that it generally struggles to play through pressure. Last season, it posted the fifth-worst successful pressure percentage against in the league and recorded below-average pressure percentages in both fixtures against Liverpool.

Even though Liverpool is dealing with a flurry of injuries as well, the one consistency so far this season has been its attack, so I’ll ride the wave with Jurgen Klopp’s side and lay the goals up to -140.

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The simple truth about both these sides is that neither attack is very good, so I’m expecting a low-scoring fixture.

Although I’m not placing a lot of weight on Bournemouth’s attacking numbers given its opposition to date — Aston Villa, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool — the fact remains it has only generated 0.32 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes in those four matches. Just against Villa — the closest comp to Wolves — it managed only 0.5 non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.

The former figure will undoubtedly increase by playing “easier” opposition, but I don’t expect it to rise by that much.

As for Wolves, manager Bruno Lage’s attack is not much better, and has less of an excuse than Bournemouth. Through four matches against Leeds United, Fulham, Tottenham and Newcastle United, Wolves has created only 0.8 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and ranks tied for 16th in the league in big scoring chances. Further, across its previous 21 road Premier League matches, Wolves has generated only 0.96 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Lastly, Wolves are a bottom-five side in virtually every meaningful underlying metric. Lage’s side is 16th or worse in all of the following categories: shots on target per 90, shot-creating actions per 90, goal-creating actions per 90 and attacking penalty area touches.

Say what you will about Bournemouth, but in two home matches to date this season, it has only allowed three big scoring chances to Villa and Arsenal. Against a comparably inferior attack, expect it to hold up in defense.

It’s certainly a steep price to pay, but I’ll be shocked if this game turns a high-scoring one.

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