Global Soccer odds, predictions: Three best bets for Non-EPL Leagues

Although the English Premier League features a number of great games, the weekend’s slates in the remaining top domestic leagues are top-notch.

In Italy, soccer bettors get not one, but TWO marquee matches as Napoli travel to Lazio and Inter battles AC Milan in two matches that could have title implications. In Germany, we get a clash between the current top-two — Bayern Munich and Union Berlin — and a matchup between two other top-five sides — Borussia Dortmund and Hoffenheim.

Elsewhere, La Liga features three quality matches on Saturday: Real Madrid-Real Betis, Real Sociedad-Atletico Madrid and Sevilla-Barcelona.

But, where should bettors look across the non-EPL slate for their bets? Without further delay, here are my three best non-EPL bets for this weekend’s action. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

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Barcelona won only once in two meetings with Sevilla last season, but the Blaugrana were far and away the better side in both matches.

Across both legs, Barca conceded exactly zero big scoring chances to Sevilla’s attack while creating four big chances and 4.32 expected goals across both meetings. Just in the meeting at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez — which did feature a Sevilla red card — Barcelona won the expected goals battle 2.10-0.46 and the big scoring chances battle 2-0 in a 1-1 draw, per fotmob.com.

This season, manager Xavi’s side is off to a roaring start and has posted strong underlying metrics. Through three matches, Barca has generated at least two expected goals in all three matches while conceding under one expected goal as well. And, although it’s a small sample size, Barcelona owns the best expected goal differential in the Spanish top-flight through these early matches.

On the flip-side, Sevilla sits ninth in the xGDiff table and has seen its normally reliable defense evaporate. Currently, Sevilla has conceded the seventh-most expected goals in the league, culminating in a 2.1 xGA output last week against Almeria.

If Sevilla can’t contain that offense, expect it to struggle against mighty Barcelona. I’ll back the visitors up to -135 on the moneyline.

Both of these head-to-head meetings finished level last season, but Leipzig was clearly the superior squad.

Just in their 1-1 draw in Frankfurt last campaign, Leipzig won the expected goals battle 2.87-0.67 while winning the big scoring chances battle 8-1 in a match I feel obligated to mention had no red cards. Then, in the second meeting of the season in Leipzig, Die Roten Bullen won 2-0 on big chances and 1.68-0.33 on xG in what was ultimately a 0-0 draw, per fotmob.com.

So far this season, the jury remains out on Leipzig as a top team, but I’ve remained unimpressed by Frankfurt in the early goings. Currently, Frankfurt sits 11th in the table but 13th on expected goal differential. Additionally, Frankfurt’s defense leaves a lot to be desired as it has conceded the fourth-most expected goals (largely because of its defensive performance against Bayern Munich), but has conceded at least 1.5 expected goals in two of its last three against non-Bayern opponents, per fbref.com.

Given Leipzig’s attack has shown itself to be fairly reliable — it has created at least one expected goal in all four matches this season and 1.75 xG/90 minutes overall — I expect it will have its way against Frankfurt’s defense. That said, I need +100 or better to get involved with the visitors.

Last season, this fixture was particularly bonkers and I foresee a similar game-script come Saturday.

Across two meetings, Nantes and PSG combined to generate eight total goals on 10.13 expected goals and a whopping 16 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Most importantly, this particular single-game parlay cashed in both meetings last season and has hit in five of the last seven meetings overall.

Given we know the overall prowess of the PSG attack — Les Parisiens have generated 3.12 xG/90 minutes across its opening five fixtures — the bonus to cash this ticket feels like it belongs to Nantes. But, the Nantes attack has proven quite good in its opening five fixtures and has generated 1.51 expected goals per 90 minutes. Additionally, Nantes sit sixth in Ligue 1 in big scoring chances and could see some positive offensive regression soon — six goals on 10 big chances.

Given the PSG defense has kept only two clean sheets in its first five matches and surrendered four combined big scoring chances in two matches against Lille and Monaco, expect Nantes to do no worse than score once.

That said, I don’t see how any side can keep the PSG attack at bay, so expect the visitors to generate a lion’s share of chances and help bettors cash this ticket.

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