Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.Underdog Tottenham has betting value over defending champs Manchester City
Are Spurs worth a bet to upset the defending champions?
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Sometimes in betting it can be helpful to boil down a matchup to a simple conundrum. For example, does getting +650 on a top-four team in the English Premier League worth a bet no matter the opponent?
That’s the question bettors can themselves in on Saturday when Manchester City hosts Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET. City is -250 on the three-way moneyline, while Spurs sit as robust +650 underdogs despite the teams having the same amount of points (14) through the first six matches of the season.
The expected goals (xG) data shows a deeper gap than that, though, as City boast a 1.88 xG differential per 90 minutes thus far in the Premier League season, while Spurs are sitting on a very impressive +0.75. Neither side has faced a particularly difficult schedule, but City has yet to face a “Big Six” club yet, while Spurs drew, 2-2, with Chelsea in their lone encounter with one.
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None of this is to say that Spurs are on the same level as City — they aren’t, Man City is the best team in the world (and perhaps ever) — but it does help drive home a related point. As incredible as the Cityzens are, Tottenham aren’t all that far behind.
The Premier League is the best league in the world and the gap has only widened over the past two seasons, so Spurs being priced as the third-best team in the EPL tells you that they’re relatively close to being peers with the likes of Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid and PSG. You’d never see a price like this on one of those teams.
There’s also reason to believe that Tottenham’s style of play under Antonio Conte will provide plenty of tricky questions for Pep Guardiola’s side to answer. City are patient on the ball, bring almost everyone into their attack and press high up the pitch to win back possession.
Tottenham are almost the opposite in every respect. Spurs have no issue ceding possession and will wait for a mistake or an opportunity to pounce and counter. And when they do counter, it’s a thing of beauty to watch with Harry Kane, Heung-min Son, Richarlison, Ivan Perisic and Dejan Kulusevski rampaging down the field.
That kind of wait-and-counter approach is almost the antidote to City’s pitch-perfect attack.
Styles make fights, as they say, but styles also provide betting opportunities. Tottenham’s sit-back-and-counter approach under Conte should give City issues and provide a platform for Spurs to pull off the upset.
The Bet: Tottenham Hotspur +650
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