Back the Phillies on the run line against the White Sox on Saturday

I’ve faded Philadelphia’s offense on multiple occasions this season, but the tide is starting to turn.

The Phillies are both heating up and walking into an extremely favorable matchup against Michael Soroka and the White Sox.

Laying north of -250 on the money line was a non-starter and although the over is tempting, Chicago’s offense is putrid and part of me is concerned about the White Sox contributing anything to the total.

Entering Friday, the Phillies have won three in a row and have scored 12 runs over their past two games. Perhaps more important is how they’ve generated that offense – with the stars leading the charge.

Over the past two games, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are a combined 10-for-26 with four homers and seven RBI.

As those three go, so do the Phillies, and right now they’re rolling.

That’s bad news for Soroka, who is 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA over 19 1/3 innings. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his four starts and walked three or more three times. And if you’re looking for a silver lining, you won’t find it in the advanced metrics.

Soroka has pitched to a 7.23 xERA, his .326 xBA is in the bottom 7% of the league, his strikeout rate (11.2%) is in the bottom 5% of the league and he ranks in just the 17th percentile in walk rate.

Of course, for the Phillies to cover this run line, the White Sox offense also needs to be held in check. Well, prior to Friday’s game, the White Sox have scored two or fewer runs in three straight games and have five or fewer hits in four of their past six games. (Remember when I wrote that I didn’t trust Chicago to contribute to the over?)

Additionally, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has pitched a bit better than his numbers indicate. The 33-year-old right hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA over four starts, but has pitched to a 2.61 xERA, ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate and is in 83rd percentile in strikeout rate.

The Phillies offense has the edge over Soroka and Wheeler should carve up the White Sox. I rarely bet the run line, but it’s too hard to pass up in this matchup.

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