The Phillies plan to run it back, says Dave Dombrowski. Smart. They’re really good. They will be, for years.
“Dave and the front office have done a great job,” manager Rob Thomson said. “We just haven’t gotten it done. I haven’t gotten it done.” Not yet, anyway.
Fire Topper, break up the team, and do it before it’s too late for this $250 million payroll to win a World Series.
Right? Wrong.
Losing to the Mets in the NLDS last week might sting today, but tomorrow looks as bright as ever for the Phillies. Zack Wheeler might be their best pitcher ever, and Aaron Nola’s not far behind. Bryce Harper’s the best player since Mike Schmidt, and he’s got a boatload of bashers in his posse. Adding, say, pending free agent Juan Soto for $400 million wouldn’t hurt, but it isn’t realistic, either.
“I don’t think we need to add more star players. We have about as many stars as anybody in baseball,” said Dave Dombrowski, who has spent about $1 billion in new deals or extensions in his four years as Phillies president. “We’re talented enough to win. We just didn’t play very well.”
Over the decades, scores of teams can say the same. That’s why baseball’s baseball.
The Phillies will return pretty much intact, from front office to manager to coaching staff to roster. The hitting coaches will stress using all fields to the pull-happy hitters who seem unaware of their own power. Whiff-prone slugger Kyle Schwarber might finally be relieved of his duties as the weirdest leadoff hitter in history. That’s about it.
Which is fine. It’s smart. It’s wise.
Winning a title in baseball is the hardest thing in sports. Have patience, Philadelphia. You have greatness in your midst. The Phillies have reached the postseason for three straight years for just the third time in team history, and have gotten there just 17 times in 142 years.
» READ MORE: The Phillies have a $300 million Trea Turner problem. The only solution is ... hope?
Enjoy the ride, even if it doesn’t take you all the way. That’s what Dombrowski’s Red Sox did. They won the AL East in 2016 and 2017, then went 0-3 and 1-3 in the ALDS. They won the World Series in 2018.
“Sometimes the same players can do it for you,” Dombrowski said.
Well, that isn’t entirely true. The 2018 team added $110 million designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who was a postseason stud, but also added Ian Kinsler, a postseason dud. It also replaced manager John Farrell with Alex Cora before the season; by contrast, Dombrowski just extended Rob “Topper” Thomson’s contract a year, through 2026.
Dombrowski’s main point is valid, though. Just look south.
Hot-lanta
In 1991, the Atlanta Braves won the first of 14 division titles in 15 years. They had three standout young pitchers: lefties Steve Avery and Tom Glavine, along with right-hander John Smoltz; David Justice, the reigning Rookie of the Year, five-tool center fielder Ron Gant; and third baseman Terry Pendleton, a three-time Gold Glove winner who was the NL MVP that season. The manager was Bobby Cox, who’d demoted himself from general manager the year before, when John Schuerholz took over.
The duo won 100 games six times, five pennants, and the 1995 World Series. They oversaw teams that included Greg Maddux, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and, for 3½ seasons, even “Neon” Deion Sanders. They knew their business. Both are in the Hall of Fame.
Why?
Because winning in the postseason is hard. You need health, luck, and a hot ballclub. Brilliant managing (of which Cox was seldom accused) won’t do it. Schuerholz and Cox were brilliant personnel men, but there’s no such thing as a flawless roster.
» READ MORE: Rob Thomson, the sluggers, and relievers cost the Phillies a World Series season as the Mets take the NLDS
Getting to the playoffs is the thing. What happens afterward, especially in short series, seldom can be predicted. The Phillies are a better team than the Mets. Seriously: Would you trade rosters? Of course not.
This isn’t football, where every play is precisely diagrammed and scripted and controlled, and, as such, the team with the best coach and quarterback usually wins; see: Andy Reid and Bill Belichick. It isn’t hockey, where the toughest, most talented team generally wins, possibly because all series last seven games. It isn’t basketball, where three great players can carry a team to a title.
Baseball requires at least 23 of 26 players to operate nearly perfectly after the most grueling of athletic seasons. It is the hardest title of all.
Real baseball people know this. That’s why, despite decades of postseason failure, Cox and Schuerholz are in the Hall of Fame.
And that’s why the Phillies and their fans should be patient. You wouldn’t trade the Schuerholz years for any Phillies era? How about the last seven — all playoff years, with a World Series win smack in the middle?
Come on.
Feel this moment
Winning a championship is not an entitlement; it is a gift. All sports franchises should either be building or contending, and the Phillies are primo contenders. Sorry. That’s all you get. There are no guarantees. Philly should know this better than most towns.
The Phillies won five straight division titles from 2007-11. They won one World Series, in 2008 — arguably the worst edition of the five. The current Phillies team is the best Phillies team since 2011. That team won a franchise-record 102 games but lost in the first round of the playoffs. Why? Because winning is hard.
The current team is probably the third-best best Phillies team in history, after 2011 and the 1980 edition that won it all. That was part of a Phillies run that saw them reach the playoffs six times in eight seasons. They won one World Series. Why? Because winning is hard.
This Phillies team has been together for 2½ seasons, considering that Thomson took over as manager midway through 2022. The only lasting major additions have been Trea Turner, a $300 million shortstop, and Taijuan Walker, a $72 million starting pitcher, each of whom was overpaid by about $72 million.
Nobody’s perfect
Dombrowski & Co. have made other mistakes. Last year, Craig Kimbrel was a well-worth-it, $10 million closer — until he faded. This year, Whit Merrifield was an $8 million contact hitter who was an All-Star in 2023, but he was so bad that the Phillies cut him in July.
Thomson hasn’t been perfect, either. He should have pulled reliever Jeff Hoffman after he hit Starling Marte in the decisive sixth inning of the decisive Game 4 of the NLDS last week. He should not have used overawed rookie Orion Kerkering or exhausted fossil Kimbrel a couple of times in the NLCS last year. Maybe he should have left Zack Wheeler in during Game 6 of the World Series in 2022.
But you know what?
Kimbrel was an All-Star last year, when Walker (somehow) won 15 games. Turner was an All-Star this year, just like Hoffman, two of eight Phillies who were All-Stars, which is a franchise record.
This is the team you want to break up?
“The roster is a championship roster,” said Thomson. He should know. He was the bench coach for the Yankees for 10 years.
They made the playoffs six times. They won the World Series all of once.
Thomson knows he has the tools.
“Dave and the front office have done a great job,” Thomson said. “We just haven’t gotten it done. I haven’t gotten it done.”
Not yet, that is.