Soaked ground and 60-mph wind gusts could cause outages and commuting woes around Philly
The heaviest rains are expected during the morning commute, the strongest winds in the afternoon.
What’s left of the season’s first snowfall is all but gone with the wind — and the heftiest rains since October. And having done its best to disrupt Friday’s morning commute, the weather evidently is executing an afternoon encore.
After backing off for a few hours, the winds came back with a vengeance Friday afternoon. A thunderstorm gust of 62 mph was recorded at Philadelphia International Airport at 2:35 p.m.
The weather service’s wind advisory for the entire region remains in effect until 1 a.m. Saturday, and conspiring with snow melt to saturate the soils, SEPTA is particularly concerned about the potential for uprooted trees along its Regional Rail lines, said media relations director Andrew Busch.
“The recipe for problems is there,” he said. “We will have crews stationed across the system to respond quickly.”
Peco heard the rumors, and while the utility is “not expecting impacts, we’re going to continue to monitor conditions,“ said Candice Womer, senior communications specialist.
The deciduous trees are mostly bare, so winds can sail through branches that are not weighed down with leaves, but the weather service advises that “some power outages” are possible.
About 16,500 outages were reported at midafternoon.
An additional concern was the predicted wind shift during the day, from southerly in the morning to westerly in the afternoon, and how that might stress vulnerable trees, Womer said.
The strongest winds will occur during the afternoon
The gusts are likely to be “widespread” during the afternoon, said Paul Fitzsimmons, a lead meteorologist at the weather service’s Mount Holly office. That would be after the rain-producing front crosses through the region and winds become westerly, peaking in time for the afternoon commute. Gusts to 50 mph are possible.
Rain totals in the Philly area are expected to be in the 1-to-1.5-inch range, Fitzsimmons said.
No stream flooding is anticipated, however, as levels are quite low. Despite the snow and a decent soaking on Dec. 2, precipitation the last two months is only about 75% of normal throughout the region, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
How dry we’ve been
The gusts aside — not a trivial omission — this system should produce a “beneficial rain,” the weather service notes.
A drought warning remains in effect for all of New Jersey.
Water levels are so low that computer models show only about a 10% chance of streams reaching even the preflood “action” phase.
In the interagency U.S. Drought Monitor map posted Thursday morning, most of Philadelphia, adjacent South Jersey, and Chester County were in the “severe drought” category, along with portions of Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties.
Most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey were in at least “abnormally dry” conditions.
The forecast for the weekend
After the winds die down Friday evening, the region should be in for a dry but chilly weekend.
Temperatures during the day Friday are forecast to dive from a high in the 50s in the morning to the 30s by nightfall, and they won’t get out of the 30s on Saturday.
Sunday’s forecast high in the mid-40s would be close to normal for the date.
Peeking ahead, the prospects of a white Christmas are not especially promising.
The region may have to settle for a wet one. Rain is possible Christmas Day with highs in the 40s. That’s not quite what Irving Berlin had in mind.