Election Day weather in Philly: It’ll be a winner

Research and opinions vary on how the behavior of the atmosphere affects who shows up at the polls, but the weather for Tuesday’s primary election almost certainly will do nothing to discourage voter turnout.

Forecasters see almost no chance of rain during the day across Pennsylvania, from Lake Erie to State College to Marcus Hook.

In the immediate Philly area, temperatures are expected to approach 80 during the day, with just about a 20% chance of a shower around the time the polls close.

Temperatures in the Philly area are due to approach 80 during the day. Will it make any difference to turnout? Unlikely.

» READ MORE: How many votes does Philly’s next mayor need in the primary? Here’s what history tells us.

The general concept that weather somehow affects turnout dates to the 19th century and has had staying power.

For any number of reasons, however, any impacts would be difficult to tease out from other factors -— like, say, the candidates, and the issues.

May 17, 1983, was the chilliest day of the month in Philly with temperatures in the 40s for most of the morning and a cool wind. By the time the polls closed, an astonishing 70% of registered Democrats had voted in the primary, and W. Wilson Goode, Philly’s first Black mayor, won a historic victory over Frank L. Rizzo, a polarizing figure.

David Thornburgh, now senior adviser to the Committee of Seventy, has observed, “What drives turnout is energy.” It’s usually negative energy.”