The Phillies’ home opener is threatened by showers and storms

» UPDATE: The Phillies’ home opener has been postponed to Friday

Eric Hoeflich has a ticket for the Phillies’ home opener Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds, and he, more than most, is aware that what he’s holding isn’t quite in a league with a winning lottery ticket.

The Phillies’ weather luck isn’t looking great. The forecast calls for the likelihood of showers to crest around the time of the pregame introductions, with odds remaining high into the evening.

“That’s what we’re looking at right now,” said Hoeflich, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly who has been attending Phillies home openers for more than 15 years. He added that “a couple” of severe storms with thunder and lightning were possible.

However, “all hope is not lost,” said Bobby Martrich, meteorologist with EPAWA Weather Consulting, which advises the Phillies, and it’s possible the teams might be able to play dodgeball successfully with the raindrops.

For their part, the Phillies assure, they will have their eyes and minds on the skies. “When weather is in the offing, we take it incredibly seriously,” said Howard Smith, the Phillies’ vice president for business affairs.

The Phillies are cautious in deciding on whether to open the stadium, he said, lest the fans waste time and money. Bad will and a loss of credibility aren’t worth parking fees and a few beer sales.

“Obviously, we want to get the game in,” he said, “but our first concern is the fans. We don’t want to mislead them.”

As is the case for most games during the season, ultimately it will be Major League Baseball’s call on whether to postpone the game, but it is not a decision made trivially. MLB officials consult with the home team and with at least two private weather companies.

The Phillies in turn have contracts with two national firms and EPAWA Weather, in the Lehigh Valley, which is their local go-to service.

And, yes, MLB officials already were in touch with the Phillies on Wednesday.

Once a game is underway, it becomes the umpire crew chief’s call on whether to halt play or call off the game. He will have help on that front.

The Phillies’ most valuable player Thursday might not be Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, or Zack Wheeler, but Jeremy Wilt.

He is the head groundskeeper, the one leading the charge when the umpire orders the tarps rolled onto the field.

He’ll be on duty early Thursday checking with EPAWA and the team’s other weather services. Wilt is familiar with the peculiarities and caprices of spring and summer showers and the microclimate quirks around the stadium complex.

During the game, Martrich said he will communicate with Wilt by text. ”We’re in constant contact with him.”

Wilt, for his part, relays what he knows and what his inner weather nerd tells him to the opposing manager and the umpire crew chief, without regard to pressure from MLB or anyone else to get the game in, he said.

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His mission, he said, is “protecting the assets,” which includes the players. He said that for the most part the umpires listen to him, although some prefer to actually feel the rain before they order a stoppage.

“Some guys will push the limits,” he said.

The game is scheduled to start at 3:05 p.m., and the weather service has the precipitation likelihood in the 80% to 85% range from 2 p.m. through 7 p.m., then it drops off. However, the rain won’t be steady in any event.

“There is still a chance it dances around the ballpark entirely or largely misses with minimal impact,” said Martrich.

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If they do play, it will feel a bit like summer, with temperatures around 80 degrees and the air quite moist.

If the game is postponed, it likely would be played on Friday’s open date, since the Reds aren’t scheduled to come back to Philly this year.

It would be about 20 degrees cooler.