Accumulating snow is looking more likely for the Philly region Sunday into Monday
Computer models were showing a wide range of outcomes from a storm that was still days away from developing, ranging from a gentle snowfall to a school and road closer.
Whatever unfolds almost certainly won’t resemble what came down from the skies on Jan. 25 or its obstructive aftermath, but accumulating snow Sunday into Monday is looking more likely.
The National Weather Service on Thursday afternoon listed an 80% chance of precipitation, with a 60% likelihood of two inches or more of snow for the immediate Philadelphia region, and about a 30% shot of at least six inches.
And add about a 100% chance of uncertainty regarding how this would play out, said Richard G. Bann, a forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center, in College Park, Md.
Computer models were showing a wide range of outcomes from a storm that was still days away from developing, ranging from a gentle snowfall to a school and road closer. Expect differences to persist.
In addition to snow, a potent storm with powerful onshore winds could result in coastal flooding, the weather service office in Mount Holly advised.
“I don’t think we would jump to either end of the extremes,” Bann said, “but we can’t say anything is completely out of the realm of possibility just yet.”
The storm would evolve from multiple moving parts before maturing off the Southeast coast, he added. “Part of the equation is starting to come together but we’re still not there yet.”
By Saturday, he said, “hopefully we’ll kind of know what part of the chessboard we’re working on.”
When snow might begin in the Philly region
Timing issues are among those likely to be fine-tuned in the next couple of days, but the early thinking is that snow, or rain changing to snow, would arrive in the Philly region late Sunday morning or in the afternoon, continuing into Monday.
The intensity of the snow and winds would depend on the strength of the storm, precisely where over the ocean it ripens, and the eventual track.
The U.S. model has been bullish on bringing it close enough for a major snowfall along I-95. The other models, not so much.
“We’re definitely going to be spinning up an area of low pressure,” Bann said, “but exactly what that means for D.C., Philly — any of us — is still in question.”
But on the plus side: No ice is expected in this go-round.
So much for the remnants of Jan. 25
One of the most-stubborn snowpacks in the period of record, which has mutated into one of the uglier snowpacks in the period of record, should be pretty much erased by the time any flakes start falling Sunday.
Submerged objects have been reappearing, evoking a surfacing submarine, and bare ground is becoming ever more visible.
» READ MORE: What's left behind as Philly thaws
A decent, soaking rain on Friday — perhaps double Philly’s month total so far, a mere 0.25 inches — and temperatures in the 40s, combined with a sunny Saturday with high near 50 degrees, should pretty well clear the yards. Those plowed-snow mountains are likely to survive a while longer.
The snowpack’s tenacity had everything to do with the two to three inches of sleet — melt-resistant white ice — that fell atop the several inches of snow on Jan. 25. The entire mess was locked in by an Arctic freeze.
Bann endured similar conditions in his area, and recalled that it was way harder to move out of the way than the Mid-Atlantic mega-snows of February 2010, when 35 to 45 inches accumulated.
He said he shoveled awhile, took a break, and then was astonished to see that his neighbors were finishing his work.
Asked if he sent them any thank-you gifts, he replied: “I haven’t stopped.”