Temple’s upset of No. 1 Houston is one more chapter in Owls’ confounding season

Temple had begun the game in Houston on Sunday with less than a 5% chance of winning, according to a website that specializes in such data.

Fair enough. Houston was No. 1 in the country, had lost just once, to another top-five team in early December. The Cougars certainly hadn’t lost at home to Wagner and Maryland Eastern Shore, as Temple had.

By halftime, score tied … Owls fans taking notice … the graph on KenPom.com was not fazed, still giving Temple a mere 6% chance.

» READ MORE: Temple topples Houston

The forecast graph didn’t believe, but somehow the Owls themselves did. After a great final stand, the final score read Temple 56, Houston 55, an old-style Owls defensive shocker. Except, unlike in the old days under John Chaney, this really was a shocker.

What it means now … some respect.

This group could have folded its tent a month ago. Heck, it looked like the Owls had folded their tents on Dec. 10 at the Palestra, vanishing before our eyes, tie game with the Quakers, outright Big 5 title on the line for Temple, until Penn scored 24 of the last 28 points. The Owls had left the building.

Most fans staying away, the Owls kept going. Didn’t have their big man who had been so often impressive. Kept going. They showed up in Houston with a 5-2 record in the American Athletic Conference, worthy enough, except what did it mean after those early nonleague, can’t-lose defeats?

What does it mean now? Does a win get Temple (12-9) back at least to the fringes of NCAA at-large consideration, much work left to do?

“Working on that as we speak!” ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi responded when I emailed right after the game, asking what Temple now had to do to even have a shot at an-large bid, my subject line labeled You knew this email was coming. “Give me a half hour.”

At the promised time, Lunardi emailed, “Doesn’t get them as close as I thought. Up to 93rd overall on my combined NCAA/NIT seed line.”

Lunardi added, “Without Wagner and UMES losses? Best guess: Low 80s and very much in the hunt.”

I asked if the Owls can get in the hunt a month from now with more wins — or is it too late? Beating Houston again at home on Feb. 5, for instance?

“One chance in five,” Lunardi said “Also need to win [Feb. 12] at Memphis, with no bad losses [e.g. Tulsa at home].”

All of that makes sense. Honestly, it would be an easier feat for Temple to simply win a few in a row at the AAC Tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, locking up the automatic bid. This Houston win makes that not such an outlandish thought.

Which means, bigger, historic news: Nobody in Philly has a real shot at an-large bid. Boop Vetrone, official statistician of all that is relevant around here, did the research, finding that the six local Philadelphia Division I men’s programs haven’t all missed the NCAA Tournament since 1977, “when just 32 schools participated.”

Past postseason ramifications, let’s not ignore what this Temple win might ultimately mean: more regret that a season of such promise could be derailed by some inexplicable losses.

I was fooled by Temple’s win over Villanova into thinking that it was a big sign of Owls progress, when it really was the first sign that ‘Nova didn’t have it defensively this season. That first game of Temple’s season already had been an overtime loss to Wagner, which is currently ranked 273rd in the NET rankings.

An OT loss to Vanderbilt? Not good, but inexplicably followed by a win over Rutgers. (The Scarlet Knights, now ranked 22nd in those NET rankings used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, didn’t have twin heartbeats Caleb McDonnell or Paul Mulcahy for that one, but still …)

This all adds up to a most confounding season. The decision of Jeremiah Williams to transfer to Iowa State deprived Temple of a central heartbeat, even more than could have been predicted, certainly at the defensive end. (More Nick Jourdain has been a good thing, I’d argue.) Here was Temple at Houston, defending the Cougars like the Cougars usually defend everyone else, winning when a loss would have slammed the door firmly shut on any at-large dreams.

What it means the rest of the way? The KenPom.com projection data still has Temple going 4-6 the rest of the way, to finish 16-15. With most teams, that website is the gold standard of forecasting. With Temple this season? A team that had a 94% chance of beating Wagner in November and a 93% chance of beating Maryland Eastern Shore in late December, and that 4% chance of winning at Houston?

What a strange trip it’s been already. Just layer in some real respect for Owls players, for staying with a season even when the odds began laughing at them.