Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Patriots game in Week 1 with Nick Sirianni vs. Bill Belichick

The first game of the season is like Christmas morning in ways, but mostly in terms of not knowing what you might get — unless you discovered the hiding spot for gifts. Sure, there’s plenty of information on the Eagles and Patriots based on last season and this training camp and preseason. It’s just tough to predict with any great confidence how both squads will handle the adjustment to regular-season football.

Nick Sirianni decided to rest Jalen Hurts and most of his starters in the preseason, while Bill Belichick used the middle of three games to prepare his first units. Will it ultimately matter? Maybe. Teams that have sat their starters throughout the preseason have historically struggled in openers. The Eagles did play Hurts & Co. for one drive last season, but that was it, and when Week 1 came vs. the Lions, they were rusty.

So this could be New England’s best chance to upset a team that clearly has superior talent. Vegas seems to think it’s a factor, hence the Eagles being only 3 ½-point favorites. The Patriots have defensive talent, and Belichick could have something up his sleeve for taking Hurts out of the run game. Blitzing the quarterback at will could be the plan. It worked to some extent early for opposing defenses last season.

» READ MORE: Public likes Eagles as slight favorites vs. Patriots, but recent history doesn’t

But the Patriots don’t look close to formidable on offense. I can see quarterback Mac Jones under constant duress behind a patchwork O-line. I could list all the unknowns the Eagles have on that side of the ball, but I think their pass rush will ultimately win the day. So let’s account for surprises — maybe the equivalent of pink bunny pajamas as a present — but in the end the desired Red Ryder BB gun victory for the Birds.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Patriots 19

Out of the 13 all-time regular-season games between the Eagles and the Patriots, the Eagles hold the slight edge in the series, 7-6. The Patriots, however, have won four of the last five games. The Eagles haven’t beaten the Patriots in the regular season since Dec. 6, 2015 (35-28 at Gillette Stadium).

Of course, every year is a new year. While the Patriots always have a fighting chance to stay afloat with Belichick guiding them at the top, they are not the dominant force out of the AFC East that once were throughout the last two decades thanks to Tom Brady. The Patriots haven’t finished last in the division since 2000 (and they finished in first in 17 of the last 23 seasons), but with the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins each growing more competitive, there’s a chance the Patriots could find themselves in the basement this year.

That’s not to say the Eagles won’t have their work cut out for them on Sunday. The quarterback Jones didn’t have the same success last season that he had during his rookie year in 2021, but the Patriots showed their faith in him this season to return to his prior form when they cut his competitor Bailey Zappe at the end of training camp. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson was a headache for opposing defenses last year, racking up a career-high 1,461 scrimmage yards (1,040 rushing, 421 receiving) and scoring six touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving).

Additionally, Belichick’s defense has finished in the top 10 of either yards allowed or points allowed for roughly the past decade, and given the continuity among their starters this season, there’s a good chance that they will be a strong unit again.

Still, the Eagles boast winning positional matchups nearly across the board, especially considering that their No. 3-ranked scoring offense in 2022 remains largely intact going into this season. With Hurts in charge of the show, the offense will continue to run through receivers A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert. The biggest question mark on offense surrounds the running backs and how the Eagles will distribute the touches among D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny.

» READ MORE: For Eagles running backs, it’s RB1 for all — at least for now

One of the bigger areas of concern for the Eagles going into Week 1 should be their ability to limit Stevenson on the ground. Second-year defensive tackle Jordan Davis has a chance to make a statement both as a run stopper and as a pass rusher while he steps into an expanded role this season. If the Eagles’ defense can keep Stevenson at bay, then the team should be able to start the season out 1-0.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Patriots 23

Too much can be made of the Eagles’ lenient approach to playing starters in the preseason, but some season-opening rust was apparent last year against the Lions.

The team finds itself in a similar situation this year as road favorites against a rebuilding team that is difficult to measure. The Eagles have significant talent advantages at several spots, particularly their defensive line against an already-hobbled New England offensive front. Patriots starting right tackle Riley Reiff is on injured reserve and three of the other four starters were limited in practice to start the week. Left tackle Trent Brown is just dealing with an illness, but left guard Cole Strange has a knee injury and right guard Mike Onwenu has an ankle injury.

All of this spells trouble for a young quarterback in Jones, who has yet to find the consistency that made him a first-round pick in the 2021 draft. The Patriots figure to run the ball quite a bit, which will give the Eagles the familiar task of chasing down Ezekiel Elliott, but a banged-up line could open opportunity for guys like Davis, Jalen Carter, and Nakobe Dean to make a strong early impression.

On the other side of the ball, the chess match against Belichick should be a challenge. As good as the Eagles offense looked for most of training camp, it’s easy to see some growing pains as the group figures out which star player the esteemed coach prioritizes in his game plan. Belichick defenses often use bracket coverages or specified matchups in man coverage to take away someone, but only time will tell whether it’s Brown, Smith, or Goedert.

The Eagles go into this game as four-point favorites on the road, which is probably reflective of their sluggish start in Detroit last year. This game could stay close longer than it should, but the Eagles should have enough firepower on both sides to ruin Brady’s return to Foxborough.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Patriots 21

Weird things tend to happen at the beginning of the season. On paper, the Eagles have advantages throughout. But the Patriots counter with future Hall of Fame coach Belichick and a defense that caused issues for opposing offenses last season, particularly in the run game.

Offensively, the Eagles possess all the firepower to get them over the hump. While Hurts ultimately decides where the ball travels, a lot of the team’s success will be dependent on how quickly coordinator Brian Johnson adjusts to his new role as the play caller within Sirianni’s offense. There is concern about age at certain spots, but the collective group of veterans have proven they are still regarded as some of the best at their respective positions.

Sirianni has successfully executed in consecutive road openers. Expect him and the reigning NFC champions to go 3-for-3 in New England.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Patriots 24

The Eagles visit the New England Patriots in the season opener. Join Eagles beat reporters Josh Tolentino, EJ Smith, and Olivia Reiner as they dissect the hottest story lines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Foxborough.