Philly is still the 6th-biggest U.S. city, but San Antonio is catching up

Despite a decline in population throughout the pandemic, Philadelphia has retained its spot as the sixth-most-populous city in the country. But if trends continue, San Antonio, Texas, stands to surpass Philadelphia in the coming years, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Between April 2020 and July 2023, Philadelphia lost 3.3% of its population, or about 53,000 residents, census estimates showed. Those pandemic-era losses dropped the city’s population to about 1,550,542.

San Antonio, meanwhile, saw the largest numerical increase in its population of any city in the country in 2023, adding about 22,000 residents last year. That influx increased the city’s population to 1,495,295 people, according to census estimates — putting it just about 55,000 people behind Philadelphia.

But Philadelphia’s pandemic-era population woes are nothing unusual when compared with those of other similarly densely populated cities in the Northeast and Midwest, said Katie Martin, project director at Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative. And, in fact, the influx of residents to cities in the South and Southwest has been occurring for decades.

“It seems like a continuation of a trend that’s been going on for 30 years,” Martin said. “Over a long period of time, people have been moving from the Northeast to the South and Southwest.”

While Philadelphia’s population decreased from 2020 to 2023, nearly all peer cities in the Northeast and Midwest saw losses, too — some at much greater rates. New York City, for example, saw a 6.2% decrease in population during the peak pandemic years.

Population losses in Boston and Baltimore also outpaced Philly’s decline from 2020 to 2023. Some West Coast cities also shrank more than Philly, including San Francisco, which lost 7.4% of its population, and San Jose.

Pandemic-era population losses were less severe in such cities as Chicago, Cleveland, and Newark, N.J. Five of the 10 largest cities, however, added population, mostly in the South and Southwest.

But when looking at the Census Bureau’s 2022 to 2023 estimates, Philly topped the list for losses, dropping 1% of its population, more than any other large city. New York, however, was close behind, seeing a drop of 0.9%.

Though while Philly had the largest population decrease last year, the decline is still less than the drop the city saw in 2022. So, in that sense, the city’s loss may be slowing, said Greg Diebold, a planning data analyst with the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

“That is what this data has been showing for the past few years,” Diebold said. “It’s showing signs of moderating.”

As Philadelphia experienced the largest percentage decline in population among the nation’s big cities from 2022 to 2023, San Antonio had the largest numerical increase in population in that time period.

If trends continue, it could knock Philly down a peg on the list of largest cities before the end of the decade. The last time that happened was in 2017, when Phoenix overtook Philadelphia for fifth place, where it still stands.

What’s more, the Philadelphia metro area — a designation that includes an urban center and its surrounding communities — was already pushed down a spot last year. The Atlanta metro area surpassed both the Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., metros in population in 2023, pushing Philly to eighth. The Miami metro area has similarly been gaining in recent years, and could knock Philadelphia down further in the near future.

Overall, 2023 marked a banner year for the South, according to census data. Of the 15 fastest-growing cities, 13 were in the South, including eight just in Texas. And other similarly situated cities — such as Oklahoma City, Las Vegas, and Phoenix — saw substantial gains throughout the pandemic.

However, some researchers question how long that population boom may last. One concern for Brett Fusco, associate director of comprehensive planning at the DVRPC, is climate change.

“I wonder about longer-term habitability of some of the more Southern places where temperature can be warmer,” Fusco said. “Texas tends to be a pretty dry state already, so I do wonder at what point that starts showing up in some of those populations.”

Since 2020, most big cities have lost residents, with those declines being attributed largely to the impact of the pandemic on how people live and work. The rise of remote work and telecommuting, cheaper real estate in the suburbs, and concerns over crime have all been cited as reasons for the pandemic population drop in large cities.

Martin, meanwhile, noted that much of Philadelphia’s population gain dating to 2006 is attributable to foreign-born residents immigrating to the city — a practice that continued during the pandemic. Amid COVID-19, she said, there was still a net gain of new immigrants in Philadelphia, but native-born departures outpaced the gains.

And while those factors all play a role, the ebb and flow of population can just be cyclical, Fusco said. Big cities often face challenges, and experience periods of struggle. But, he said, dense urban areas such as Philadelphia tend to “lead the way forward out of difficult times.”

“Places that are tested a lot become more resilient and adaptable over time,” Fusco said. “The city should be looking at this as an opportunity to innovate and do things differently.”

Both Fusco and Diebold noted that the Census Bureau’s numbers are only estimates, and are subject to adjustment. In addition, they added, the Census Bureau’s number don’t show a complete picture of where the city may end up in the long run. As a result, the numbers we’re seeing now ought to be taken with a grain of salt.

“We’re not putting too much emphasis on these shorter-term trends,” Diebold said.

That emphasis, instead, is being focused on longer-term investments. Projects including the Chinatown Stitch project, the I-95 cap at Penn’s Landing, the Spring Garden Street Connector, and a $317 million federal grant for Market-Frankford Line upgrades all point to longer-term growth, Fusco said.

“It’s hard not to be bullish on the city in the long term,” Fusco said. “There’s a lot of investment still happening.”