We dig into the late debate | Election Newsletter

Get a version of this article sent directly to your inbox by signing up for our PA 2022 Election Newsletter.

🗓 It’s 34 days until the general election.

As soon as Lt. Gov. John Fetterman accepted a debate invitation for Oct. 25, Mehmet Oz said their matchup would fall too late in the cycle – two weeks before Election Day – given people could start voting by mail as early as late September. He criticized Fetterman for declining earlier debates.

“John Fetterman has only agreed to one debate on October 25, which would take place after hundreds of thousands of absentee and mail-in voters begin casting their ballots,” Oz’s campaign said in a statement this week.

Fetterman’s campaign points to debates in years past that similarly fell about two weeks before the election, though in those contests there were two debates apiece in October

The difference is many more people vote by mail now than in 2018, when Sen. Bob Casey and Lou Barletta held their first Senate debate Oct 21.

And let’s also be honest about the politics: The candidate who’s trailing almost always wants more and earlier debates. The one who’s leading usually wants fewer. (As reporters, who want transparency that helps voters stay informed, we want to see candidates answering as many questions as possible.)

The televised debate in Harrisburg will be the one primetime bout in a tight race for one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country. It’s a former TV doctor against a stroke survivor with lingering speech challenges who has never been the most nimble debater. Typically, debates don’t move undecided voters too much, but individual moments can become flashpoints in the critical home stretch.

In more ways than one, it’s a made-for-TV matchup. So how many votes will be cast before it airs? We wanted to dig into it.

📬 Most votes, even most mail ballots, will be cast after Oct. 25.

Yes, the 2022 vote-by-mail numbers will look a lot different from the past, but we know from recent elections that most voters will still vote in person on Nov. 8. Even most mail ballots tend to be cast in the final two weeks.

Look at 2020, the high-water mark for mail voting so far, thanks to both a presidential election and pandemic precautions: About two of five votes were cast by mail, and only about two of five of those votes were cast two weeks or more before Election Day.

In this year’s May primary, nearly 90% of mail ballots were recorded as received in the last two weeks. That means less than 5% of the vote was cast by the two-week mark.

Now, a quick public service announcement: Even if voters tend to mail in ballots in the final days, it doesn’t mean you should cut it close. It must be received by 8 p.m. Election Day. Postmarks don’t count.

🤔 The voters who vote early tend to have already made up their minds.

The kind of person who knows to request a mail ballot and sends it in early typically also is informed about the election and who they support.

“There are obsessive people like me who return their ballot as soon as it arrives,” said Democratic strategist J.J. Balaban.

“And people like my wife (an apolitical physician) who gets around to it 10-14 days before the election. The people like me who tend to vote immediately tend to be the least persuadable.”

The pool of persuadable potential Oz voters is also limited by the fact that Democrats remain much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans.

❗️Still, this debate might have higher stakes than most.

With the lack of policy discussion we’ve seen in this race, this one-hour debate could be more influential than most.

It could be the first time Oz has to actually answer questions he’s consistently dodged, including:

Oz has taken questions at campaign stops but has done very few one-on-one interviews outside of Fox News.

And for Fetterman, it will be one of the longest periods of direct questioning he’s faced. His campaign answers on his behalf when we ask policy questions but at the debate, he will have to explain and defend those positions himself. How he communicates as he recovers from his stroke will also be under scrutiny.

Late September polling indicated roughly 7% to 10% of voters were undecided in the Senate race.

They’re likely to make up their mind at the last minute, said Berwood Yost, pollster for Franklin & Marshall College.

“These are voters who don’t feel favorable toward either candidate but who think it’s important to vote,” Yost said. “So maybe some event turns the tide. It’s possible the debate may do that.”

🗳 Latino voters favor the Democrats in Pennsylvania

Latinos in Pennsylvania support Democrats Shapiro and Fetterman, according to a Telemundo poll released this week. Shapiro led Mastriano with Latinos 60% to 24% and Fetterman led Oz 53% to 35%.

Nationally, some Latinos have consistently shifted rightward, a trend accelerated by President Donald Trump. But in Pennsylvania, the shift hasn’t been as dramatic as we’ve seen in other places across the nation. Biden won the Latino vote in the state 69 to 27, slightly higher than his national margin with Latinos and much higher than the 53% he got in Florida.

Still, in a state where elections are often decided on slim margins, Republicans clearly see an opportunity. Mastriano met with Latino leaders in Philadelphia on Friday – and released a digital ad he voiced himself in Spanish. “Pensilvania necesita una cambia,” Mastriano says as images of the Art Museum and the LOVE sculpture flash on screen.

🐶 Puppies and politics

It’s not an accusation we expected to see lobbed this cycle. But Oz this week faced headlines accusing him of being a puppy killer, after scrutiny over his treatment of animals following a report that dozens of his experiments at Columbia University resulted in the deaths of hundreds of dogs.

The issue (which had been covered before) went viral after Jezebel published a report Monday about Oz’s time as a “principal investigator” at the University’s labs for a number of years. Between 1989 and 2010, he published the results of 75 experiments that involved 1,027 animals. Of those experiments, at least 34 killed about 329 dogs, Jezebel reported.

An Oz spokesperson called the Jezebel story “preposterous,” and said Oz was not present during the research and “does not condone the mistreatment of animals.”

Our colleague Nick Vadala has a rundown on what you should know.

📺 Ads, ads, ads

This week several outside interest groups bought up air time in the Senate race. Everytown for Gun Safety launched a $2.1 million ad campaign, hammering Oz and Mastriano for their opposition to tougher gun laws, including universal background checks.

And the Republican Jewish Coalition launched a $1.5 million ad buy of its own in Philadelphia, trying to reach Black voters over the incident involving Fetterman chasing down a jogger. 🔑

Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic Senate Super PAC, dropped a 60-second radio ad hitting Oz over the questionable medical advice he dished out on his TV show.

The outside money confirms that both parties see a tight race worth investing in.

📢 Still committed to the lie

When Republicans in Congress tried to throw out Pennsylvania’s 2020 presidential vote, nearly all of the state’s Rs were on board. Now facing voters for the first time since the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler isn’t showing any regrets.

“I’d vote not to certify again,” he told Pittsburgh’s Action News 4. He said that was “the only recourse we had in Congress to look at what the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania did was to vote not to certify.”

Of course, that would have meant throwing out every single vote in the state over decisions that affected only a fraction of votes, and that were affirmed by the state’s final arbiter of legal disputes. It also gave credence to the lie that the election was stolen.

According to the Action News report, “when asked for specific examples of why the congressman thought the election was stolen, the Zoom call was ended from Reschenthaler’s office.”

📰 A tale of two Republicans. Doug Mastriano has the fervent base. But Mehmet Oz is trying to reach Pennsylvania swing voters. Jon wrote about the very different tactics the two top Republican candidates are taking in Pennsylvania. Mastriano has a devoted base of support who chanted his name at a September rally with former President Donald Trump. But even some fellow Republicans are cringing because he’s done little to expand his backing. Oz has tried to soften his profile and reach out to suburban swing voters and even some voters in deep-blue Philadelphia – aiming for a broader, if less excited, range of support. With the Senate race showing signs of tightening, his approach has Republicans talking up their hopes for “Shapiro-Oz” voters. 🔑

📹 Watch Mastriano stump in Philly. There were protests outside and a mix of hardcore supporters and curious community members inside. Mastriano said Philadelphia was being killed “by lawlessness,” and blamed Shapiro for rising crime and drug problems in the city. We put together some clips from the visit.

📰 Aiming to replace Mike Doyle? Mike Doyle. Even with longtime incumbent Mike Doyle retiring, the 12th Congressional District, based in Pittsburgh, should be an easy hold for Democrats. But this race comes with a strange twist: the Republican running to fill the seat is also named Mike Doyle. Ryan Deto of Pittsburgh’s TribLive looked at the odd story. In such a deep-blue district, it’s hard to picture even some confusion making the race close. Democratic nominee Summer Lee is heavily favored to win and become the first Black woman in the state’s congressional delegation.

See you next week when we’ll know if the Phillies are continuing on with us into October.