It’s clear what the Phillies need at the trade deadline. Do they have the prospect capital to get it?

Even at rock bottom — a 9-19 record, last place, the manager collecting a pink slip — Phillies officials figured they may still wind up buying at the trade deadline.

But would they have the prospect capital for a big deal?

“Well, there’s no doubt that we do,” Dave Dombrowski said back on April 28. “Yes.”

Not everyone shares that opinion.

With the deadline looming — set a calendar reminder for Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. — the Phillies are in playoff position and believed to be targeting late-inning relief, a right-handed bat, and a No. 4/5 starter. Or maybe, as one rival scout theorized this week, Dombrowski will attempt a bigger swing for higher-end starting pitching given the lack of available impact bats.

» READ MORE: Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen is becoming a top priority, and maybe the Mets can provide answers

In any case, the Phillies’ farm system is ranked 29th out of 30 teams, according to Baseball America’s recently released midseason assessment. But don’t take the word of one publication. Fangraphs pegs them with the No. 24 system; MLB Pipeline’s preseason ranking put them at No. 20.

Many scouts are similarly unimpressed. One evaluator from a National League team, granted anonymity in exchange for candor, called the Phillies’ system “pretty barren,” while conceding they have a few “lottery ticket types” in the low minors.

As another NL scout put it, “Their system’s thin at the upper levels.” While some teams “have guys who could come to the big leagues and probably perform at a high level, the Phillies don’t really have that at triple A at all.”

Indeed, in trying to turn up right-handed hitting within the organization, the Phillies cycled through Otto Kemp (2-for-25, 10 strikeouts), Félix Reyes (6-for-38, nine strikeouts), switch-hitting Steward Berroa (1-for-7, four strikeouts), and now, veteran Bryan De La Cruz, who homered Wednesday night. They traded two minor leaguers last month for platoon outfielder Derek Hill.

On the pitching side, untouchable (in past trade talks, at least) Andrew Painter lugged a 7.07 ERA back to triple A in June. The best in-house replacement: Alan Rangel, a 28-year-old righty who got released in the minors by the Angels two years ago and posted a 5.40 ERA before returning to Lehigh Valley this week.

Dombrowski and general manager Preston Mattingly push back against criticisms of the farm system. Never mind, Mattingly says, that the Phillies have only two prospects (injured infielder Aidan Miller and righty Gage Wood) who are regarded among the top 100 in the sport.

“A lot of times, you mention top-100 lists, that’s not necessarily what teams internally talk about and the players they ask about,” Mattingly said recently on The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “They’re going with a lot of the information, the data that we have internally. And we feel really good where our system’s at.”

Sure, but the Brewers and Dodgers feel the same about theirs, No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in Baseball America’s rankings. The Braves and Cubs are closer to the middle of the pack, at No. 14 and No. 16, but still ahead of the Phillies.

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It’s shaping up as an extreme seller’s market, with 22 teams entering the weekend in playoff position or within 4½ games of a wild-card spot. Some will waive a white flag before Aug. 3; others will hold firm. Regardless, the demand for players will outweigh supply.

“To me, it’s always about who can impact my team more rather than what’s my biggest need,” former major-league general manager Jim Bowden said this week on Phillies Extra. “A starter probably helps the Phillies win the division more over a 162-game schedule. But to win in October, perhaps it’s the reliever or the right-handed bat that would be more important.”

Relative to most of his counterparts, Dombrowski is willing to move prospects, though he has clung to Miller and especially Painter, whom he wouldn’t discuss at the deadline two years ago for Garrett Crochet. He probably will have to change that stance now for a starter who would pitch in the postseason — and certainly for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the marquee name on the market if Detroit makes him available.

Even so, it’s fair to wonder if there’s enough in the Phillies’ minor-league stable to make meaningful additions to any area of the major-league roster.

“What’s fascinating about [Dombrowski’s] long, successful Hall of Fame career, which is what it’s been, is that he has made a lot of trades without having good farm systems,” Bowden said. “He did it in Detroit, he did it in Florida, he did it in Montreal.”

It seems Dombrowski will have to pull another card from his sleeve this year.

As a nonroster invitee to spring training, Miller’s locker was in the high-rent district of the clubhouse, wedged between Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto.

It wasn’t a coincidence.

The Phillies hoped to bring Miller to the majors this year, especially after he batted .356 with six homers and 22 steals over the final two months last season. Instead, the 22-year-old former first-round pick hasn’t played at all because of a lower back condition involving a degenerating disc and joint swelling.

Miller had a spinal procedure June 5, at which time the Phillies outlined “the goal to return to game activity in six to eight weeks.” Seven weeks later, updates are infrequent.

» READ MORE: The Phillies still need a right-handed bat. Let’s take an early dive into some options before the trade deadline.

”He’s progressing,” farm director Luke Murton texted Thursday. “Back to playing catch. Some defense next week.”

Even so, the treatment that Miller received — radiofrequency ablation of the facet joints — provides temporary relief and may need to be repeated. The uncertainty about Miller’s short- and long-term health creates multiple questions, not only about his status as the Phillies’ future shortstop but also his value in a potential trade.

“If he was healthy,” an AL scout said, “he could lead a package.”

And now? It’s doubtful Miller could anchor a deal for, say, Skubal or Padres closer Mason Miller. For a trade of that magnitude, the Phillies may have to use Painter as a headliner — and even then, the Brewers and Dodgers have the prospect depth to outbid them.

But do they have the collateral in prospects to make a move for another starter, such as the Mets’ Clay Holmes, the Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman, or Giants lefty Robbie Ray? Or will they have to aim lower, or fill a less costly need?

Among their higher-end prospects, infielder Aroon Escobar entered the weekend with a .637 OPS in double A, and outfielder Dante Nori has been sidelined for six weeks with a lower body injury. Shortstop Bryan Rincon (13 homers, .834 OPS in double A) is having a nice year, but profiles as a second or third piece in a deal.

Two years ago, the Phillies’ farm system was No. 14 in Baseball America’s midseason rankings. A partial list of trades since then:

The Phillies haven’t been burned by any of those players ... yet. And the Luzardo and Duran trades, in particular, were big wins. But a continuous drain of the prospect pool led to a cumulative erosion.

“We’ve definitely been in a window where we’re acquiring players at the deadline,” Mattingly said. “We’re never recouping value, which is the state of where we’re at. It’s a great place to be, honestly, when you’re trying to compete for a championship every year.”

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And after having only 12 major-league debutants over the last three seasons, fewer than any team in that span, the Phillies finally graduated Justin Crawford, Painter, and Gabriel Rincones Jr. to the majors this year.

Crawford and Rincones are platoon outfielders for now; Painter, long viewed by Dombrowski as Justin Verlander 2.0, is expected back in the majors before the end of the season.

In time, the Phillies believe all three will make a greater impact, though they could also be used in a trade.

Either way, it takes time to replace them in the system.

The deepest subset of the Phillies’ farm system, in the assessment of three scouts, is right-handed pitching.

Start with Wood.

Or maybe bring him out of the bullpen?

Most scouts concur that Wood will pitch in the majors, but there’s disagreement about his optimal role. The 22-year-old is starting in the minors, though he has pitched more than four innings only once. He has a 3.58 ERA in double A and gained more national exposure two weeks ago by starting the Futures Game.

» READ MORE: ‘Phillies Extra’ Q&A: Preston Mattingly on the trade deadline, his ‘special’ chance to work with his dad, and more

There may be enough interest in Wood to anchor a deal for a needle-moving player. But Wood also appears to be on an accelerated track, with the Phillies jumping him two levels to double A in late May.

“I don’t think about that stuff,” Wood said of being the subject of trade rumors. “I’m just here to play baseball.”

Several other right-handers are getting attention from scouts, but most are in the low minors. Two scouts mentioned 21-year-old righty Brad Pacheco, who has a 4.08 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 68⅓ innings for low-A Clearwater. Wen-Hui Pan and Alex McFarlane, a hard-thrower who made his major-league debut this week, also get decent marks.

A name to watch: Ramon Marquez. The 20-year-old righty entered the weekend with a 2.02 ERA in 10 games, including a 2.25 mark in four starts since moving up to high-A Jersey Shore.

One scout called Marquez “probably their best pitching prospect right now.”

Maybe he’s the Phillies’ best trade chip, too.

Watch the latest episode

Phillies owner John Middleton spent months planning to host the city’s first All-Star Game in 30 years. Now that it’s over, he joined Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball podcast, to recap his most memorable moments from the week. He also discussed the upcoming trade deadline and Field of Dreams Game in Iowa, and the future of the top of the Phillies organizational masthead. Watch here. Watch here.

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