Returning home with a split, here are five reasons the Phillies can be optimistic about winning the NLDS

There is no denying that the Phillies’ loss on Monday was deflating. They could have come home with a 2-0 series lead in their National League Division Series against the Braves and instead will return with a 1-1 split. It’s still a good spot to be in, but it’s not as good as it could have been.

Regardless, this is a series for a reason, and it is far from over. There are still two — and maybe three — more games to play. They won’t be easy. The Phillies will need to do a better job of taking advantage of the Braves’ mistakes. Their inability to do so Monday night might have cost them a Game 2 win.

But there are reasons for optimism. As they head into Game 3 (5:07 p.m. Wednesday), here are five reasons the Phillies could emerge victorious in the NLDS.

The Braves have not announced a Game 3 starter yet, but whoever it is, he won’t have the track record of Aaron Nola. He has had an up-and-down season, but thanks to some mechanical changes, he is pitching as well as he has all year. He pitched well against the Braves this season with a 3.50 ERA over three starts — and in his nine-year career (3.40 ERA over 33 starts). He pitches much better at Citizens Bank Park than on the road.

The Braves could go with Bryce Elder, 20-year-old rookie AJ Smith-Shawver, or a bullpen game in Game 3. None of those options seem particularly compelling. Smith-Shawver has only made five big league starts with a 4.26 ERA. Elder isn’t getting the swing and miss he was last year, and his ERA has jumped from 3.17 in 2022 to 3.81 in 2023.

» READ MORE: Phillies fans have always been crazy. Remember Burt Hooton?

In Game 4, the Braves will start Spencer Strider. The Phillies have not announced their plans yet, but Ranger Suárez, who started Game 1, did a good job of keeping the Braves off-balance in his 3⅔ innings. Cristopher Sanchez is another option. The Braves have only seen him in three games, and two starts over Sanchez’s career. They’ve tacked some earned runs off him but Sanchez has done a good job of battling through his starts. He has yet to make a postseason appearance.

Should the series go five games, the Phillies would be able to use Zack Wheeler to start Game 5 on Saturday in Atlanta. Max Fried would be lined up to start Game 5 for the Braves, but he looked shaky, at best, on Monday night. If he is the Braves’ best option in a do-or-die game, they could be in trouble.

This feels like a cliche thing to mention, but the home-field advantage is real at Citizens Bank Park. Beyond making opposing players feel uncomfortable, the ballpark is so loud that some players can’t use their PitchCom devices properly to communicate pitch selection. The Phillies’ .686 winning percentage at home is the highest of any team that has played 20 or more playoff games in its home ballpark, as The Inquirer’s Mike Sielski cited in his column on Tuesday.

» READ MORE: Murphy: The Phillies say they are mentally tough. They have a chance to prove it after an epic Game 2 meltdown.

The fans will do their best to will the Phillies into winning Games 3 and 4. You know that they’ll do their best to make Strider feel uncomfortable, too, especially after his recent comments about crowds. That level of engagement isn’t something the Braves are used to. For the first 15 innings of the NLDS in Atlanta, Truist Park was dormant. In Game 1, fans were leaving for the exits early. They ended on a high note, but even that pails in comparison — energy wise — to what Citizens Bank Park is like during a playoff game.

For some reason, the Phillies have not fared well in Game 2s. Since 2008, they’ve gone 14-1 in Game 1s, 6-9 in Game 2s, and have still gone on to win 10 of those 14 series. It is probably a fluky thing, but regardless, it speaks to the Phillies’ resiliency. Speaking of resiliency…

Nick Castellanos said it best after the Phillies’ 5-4 loss in Game 2 on Monday.

“We thrive after we get punched in the face, man,” he said. “So, that’s all it is. Good. It stings, and we’ll take it, and make it motivate us moving forward.”

What happens over the next three games will show us just how tough they are. But we have no reason to doubt the Phillies’ toughness. This is similar to last postseason, when they split the NLDS in Atlanta, and returned home on the heels of a Game 2 shutout loss to the Braves. That was an ugly loss. The Phillies managed only three hits against the Braves that night.

» READ MORE: Sielski: The Phillies have the best home-field advantage in baseball. Here’s the real secret to it.

But in Game 3 they responded immediately with a 9-1 win. They took the series in four games. Last year’s Game 2 loss wasn’t as devastating as this year’s. But it wasn’t an easy one to bounce back from.

In the ninth inning on Monday night, Bryce Harper drew a leadoff walk, turned to his teammates in the Phillies dugout, and started clapping his hands enthusiastically. He was pumped up, and so were they — even after Austin Riley’s two-run, go-ahead home run in the eighth inning. The result wasn’t what the Phillies wanted, but that gesture speaks to their mentality. It’s cliche, but they don’t go down without a fight.

This might be nothing — and the Phillies certainly don’t need any extra motivation to win this series — but Orlando Arcia reportedly yelled “Atta boy Harper” in the Braves clubhouse after their Game 2 win. It doesn’t seem like the wisest thing to do just before the Braves are set to travel to Philadelphia for Games 3 and 4.

Manager Rob Thomson downplayed it in a media availability on Tuesday, but who knows how the players will react.

“I don’t think anybody needs any motivation right now,” Thomson said. “But if that adds to our motivation, that’s great.”